After being banned for four years, Polymarket returns to the U.S. market, accelerating the "everything can be bet on" trend in America

After being banned by U.S. regulators for nearly four years, the return of the prediction market platform Polymarket marks a key moment for this emerging industry. With support from investment commitments of up to $2 billion from its operator on the New York Stock Exchange, Polymarket is re-entering the world's largest economy, planning to initially focus on sports events and ultimately expand into a vast field where "everything" can be traded, which is bound to intensify competition with traditional sports betting giants and drive the expansion of the entire prediction market industry. According to an announcement released by the company on Wednesday, Polymarket has officially returned to the U.S. after nearly four years of prohibition. The platform had been banned from operating in the U.S. since reaching a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in January 2022. Now, its application has begun to push notifications to users on the waiting list of over 200,000 people. This return comes at a time when prediction markets are gaining unprecedented attention in the U.S. Polymarket's application topped the Apple App Store's free sports app download chart even before its official launch. Its strategy of "first sports, then everything" will directly challenge competitors like Kalshi and potentially disrupt the businesses of traditional sports betting companies such as DraftKings and Flutter. These traditional giants have also sensed the pressure and are planning to launch their own prediction market products. Polymarket's return is not an isolated event but occurs in a market environment characterized by a surge of capital and increasingly fierce competition. Two months ago, the company secured a maximum investment commitment of $2 billion from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the operator of the New York Stock Exchange. This deal not only provides substantial funding but also allows ICE to distribute Polymarket's event-driven data, offering clients sentiment indicators on market-related topics. From Sports to Macro, Everything Can Be Traded Polymarket's expansion path is clear: "first sports, then everything." The platform will first launch contracts for sports events and then add "markets about everything." Its international users can already trade on questions such as whether U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will resign before March 31 next year or the closing price of gold in 2025. In contrast, its competitor Kalshi's $5.8 billion monthly trading volume in November was primarily driven by sports-related contracts, while Polymarket's $3.7 billion monthly trading volume came more from its strengths in macroeconomic and political markets. However, this expansion path is not without obstacles. Due to its similarities to sports betting, contracts for sports events have been controversial in the U.S., with regulation handled independently by each state. Polymarket's main competitor Kalshi has faced multiple legal battles as a result. According to Front Office Sports, it remains to be seen whether Polymarket will face similar legal challenges in the future. Nevertheless, from sports and politics to macroeconomics, prediction markets are rapidly broadening their boundaries. As Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated, the industry is "replacing debate, subjectivity, and empty talk with markets, accuracy, and truth." ** Tech Giants Bet Big, Capital Floods into Prediction Markets Prediction markets are becoming a new hotspot for capital chasing, attracting massive investments from mainstream financial institutions. Polymarket is not the only platform receiving substantial funding support. According to Stocktwits, its main competitor Kalshi announced on Tuesday the completion of a $1 billion financing round, with the company's valuation reaching $11 billion, marking its third financing round this year and more than doubling its valuation in just a few months. This trend is also reflected in the public markets. Online brokerage Robinhood has seen its stock price soar since launching its prediction market center in collaboration with Kalshi in March of this year, with an increase of more than three times year-to-date. Last month, the company also acquired 90% of MIAX Derivatives Exchange, further deepening its footprint in the field. The influx of capital and the endorsement from mainstream financial institutions are pushing prediction markets from the fringes of financial "bets" to widely accepted trading tools that span sports, entertainment, and finance. Traditional Sports Betting Companies Face Disruption As Polymarket makes its return, the U.S. prediction market landscape is no longer what it was four years ago; the field has become exceptionally crowded, with new entrants including PrizePicks, Underdog, Novig, and even Trump's Truth Social platform. However, the biggest shock comes from the impact on the traditional sports betting industry. According to Stocktwits, industry giants like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment (which owns FanDuel) are feeling uneasy and have announced plans to launch their own prediction market products. Although executives from these companies stated in interviews that sports betting and prediction markets are two different products that will not cannibalize each other's user base, some new products (such as "Same Game Parlay") have directly impacted their core businesses. When Polymarket and Kalshi signed agreements with the National Hockey League (NHL), making it the first mainstream U.S. sports league to authorize trademarks for prediction markets, DraftKings and Flutter's stock prices reacted negatively. Recent financial reports also indicate that both companies are experiencing weak sports betting revenues