<div id="readability-page-1">Money Markets Will Intel Stock Beat Nvidia In The New Year?  ByTrefis Team ,  Contributor.  Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Building a platform to do the job of 1 million analysts for  Great Speculations Follow Author Dec 05, 2025, 05:00am EST Share Save Comment  ANKARA, TURKIYE - SEPTEMBER 29: In this photo illustration, logo of Nvidia is displayed on a mobile phone screen in front of a screen displaying the logo of intel in Ankara, Turkiye on September 29, 2025. (Photo by Omer Taha Cetin/Anadolu via Getty Images) Anadolu via Getty Images One year ago, while Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) AI-driven ascent was in full swing, we recommended reducing positions in the GPU leader and shifting towards undervalued Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) —a contrarian investment based on potential rebounds in the semiconductor sector.  Fast forward to now: Nvidia has increased approximately 28% since December 6, 2024, whereas Intel has skyrocketed by 95%. That exchange would have yielded significant alpha in a market still enamored with AI hype.  The crucial question is: With both stocks showing gains, does the strategy remain viable for 2026 and beyond? Let’s analyze it.  Asset allocation is a more strategic approach than stock picking. The asset allocation strategies employed by Trefis’ wealth management partner based in Boston generated positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&amp;P dropped over 40%. Additionally, Trefis’ High Quality Portfolio is part of these strategies.  Nvidia’s Performance Is Still Strong, But Signs of Weakness Are Emerging Nvidia remains an exceptional company, but with a $4.4 trillion market capitalization, it is priced for flawlessness in an increasingly complicated environment. The &#34;easy&#34; growth phase (triple-digit expansions) has ended; we are now entering the &#34;grind&#34; phase.  The Transition from Training to Inference Nvidia has established its dominion through training extensive models (ChatGPT, Gemini), in which its GPUs have no equal. This trend persisted largely throughout 2025.  However, the future may be centered around inference (executing those models). Inference is sensitive to costs, not merely performance. You don’t require a Ferrari for a grocery trip, nor do you need an H200 to operate a basic customer service chatbot.  Inference workloads are transitioning to specialized, more affordable silicon. This potential margin compression may be unavoidable as AI evolves from model creation to “utility.”  Advancements with Google’s TPU MORE FOR YOU While Wall Street focuses on Nvidia, Silicon Valley is discreetly implementing Google’s Tensor Processing Units, including the Trillium.  Increasing use of TPUs: Google has utilized these chips to train and operate its Gemini models, and it also markets them to external parties such as Anthropic. Anthropic has stated it intends to invest tens of billions to acquire up to one million Google TPUs, providing around 1 gigawatt of computing power for its next phase of AI development.  Meta’s Validation: Reports indicate that Facebook’s parent company Meta has been negotiating to purchase TPUs for its AI initiatives.  Recent assertions imply that Trillium offers price-performance enhancements of 30-50% for inference compared to Nvidia’s top GPUs.  Threats to CUDA: Nvidia’s CUDA software dominance is facing challenges from PyTorch 2.0 and OpenAI’s Triton, which could simplify hardware transitions eventually.  Challenges with Hyperscaler Capital Expenditures Pressures on shareholders are coming: Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta have invested hundreds of billions in AI hardware capital expenditures. They will inevitably encounter shareholder demands for returns.  Why should Nvidia command such high prices: Nvidia’s hardware constitutes the most significant expenditure in this capital allocation. With high-end GPUs priced at over $30,000, and Nvidia enjoying more than 50% net margins, the chipmaker is essentially consuming the profits of the hyperscalers. To enhance their own margins, large tech firms must aggressively minimize these hardware expenses through custom silicon or optimizations.  Intel’s Geopolitical Advantage Intel’s Technology: Closing the Gap, But Not Necessarily &#34;Winning&#34; (Yet) Let’s be pragmatic regarding Intel’s highly regarded 18A node. It is improbable that it will outpace TSMC’s N2 on the first day concerning yield or overall performance. Nevertheless, it doesn't necessarily need to.  Although Intel has faced challenges with execution, its investment in Backside Power Delivery (PowerVia) is notably innovative. This design addresses crucial thermal issues in densely packed chips, making the 18A node highly appealing for certain high-performance applications.  Intel does not need to usurp the crown to deliver value to shareholders. It merely needs to demonstrate that 18A is a feasible, stable option. If they can offer performance within 10-15% of TSMC, the geopolitical advantages will handle the remaining aspects.  The Geopolitical Context As chip supply becomes intertwined with national security, Intel has emerged as one of the few Western producers capable of establishing a resilient, non-TSMC supply chain. Several factors are supporting this trend.  Tariffs &amp; Policies: Newly imposed tariffs on imported chips could eventually reduce the cost disparity between Taiwanese and U.S. wafers, benefiting Intel and aligning with the U.S. government’s push for localization.  Strategic Infrastructure: The planned investments in Intel’s Ohio and Arizona megafabs exceed $50 billion. U.S. government agencies, including the Department of Defense and Department of Energy, could have a structural incentive to keep these facilities operational, integrating Intel into America’s strategic framework.  Mitigating Taiwan Risk: The world’s most advanced chips are produced on a single island (Taiwan). Global tech companies are compelled to seek alternative avenues. Intel uniquely has the fabs, IP, and scale to establish a secondary supply chain outside of Taiwan.  Apple’s Exploratory Initiatives: Apple is reportedly contemplating the utilization of Intel’s foundry for some of its logic chip manufacturing. This decision could aid in establishing a U.S. base for geopolitical stability.  Conclusion: Continue with the Switch This represents the strongest aspect of the argument.  Nvidia ($4.4 Trillion market cap): With a valuation exceeding 20 times its revenue, it’s priced for an environment where everything proceeds without issues.  Intel ($200 Billion): At four times its projected sales, it’s valued for a scenario where nothing goes well.  Indeed, Intel stock has surged to some degree. However, even at current valuations, the negative factors (losses from legacy foundry operations, decrease in market share) are largely reflected in the price. The stock behaves like a compressed spring; any favorable news regarding 18A yields or a confirmed Tier-1 customer agreement could produce significant upside. Markets favor certain outcomes, yet semiconductors are cyclical—Nvidia’s early benefits from AI may diminish as inference gains prominence and competitors proliferate, while Intel’s undervalued resources (foundry technology, U.S. presence) position it for a revaluation. The strategy isn’t just about holding; it’s gaining momentum.  However, the risks extend beyond drastic market falls. Stocks can decline even in robust market conditions—consider scenarios such as earnings reports, business updates, or outlook adjustments. Review INTC Dip Buyer Analyses to observe how the stock has bounced back from significant declines in the past.  The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio , comprising 30 stocks, has a history of consistently outperforming its benchmark, including all three indices—S&amp;P 500, S&amp;P mid-cap, and Russell 2000. What accounts for this? As a collective, HQ Portfolio stocks have provided superior returns accompanied by lower risk when compared to the benchmark index; a less turbulent experience, as illustrated by HQ Portfolio performance metrics .  Editorial Standards Reprints &amp; Permissions LOADING VIDEO PLAYER... FORBES’ FEATURED Video</div>

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<p>Intel's stock has surged 95% since December 2024, outperforming Nvidia's 28% increase. The analysis suggests Intel's geopolitical advantages and innovative technology could make it a viable investment despite Nvidia's strong market position. The shift from AI model training to inference may impact Nvidia's margins, while Intel's 18A node offers potential value. The strategic asset allocation approach is recommended for future investments.</p>

- The article analyzes the performance of Nvidia and Intel stocks, highlighting Nvidia's 28% increase and Intel's 95% surge over the past year.  
- It discusses the potential for Intel to capitalize on geopolitical advantages and the evolving semiconductor landscape, particularly as AI transitions from training to inference.  
- The conclusion suggests that while Nvidia is highly valued, Intel's lower valuation presents an opportunity for significant upside, especially if it can demonstrate the viability of its new technology.