"Elon Musk's exclusive valuation"? SpaceX, with 1/6 of Tesla's revenue, is valued at more than half of Tesla's valuation

SpaceX is selling shares in the secondary market at a valuation of $800 billion, despite its expected revenue being only about one-sixth of Tesla's. This valuation has already reached more than half of Tesla's market value. This level of valuation would make SpaceX surpass OpenAI to become the most valuable private company in the United States.

On December 5th, according to The Wall Street Journal, informed sources stated that SpaceX's Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen recently informed investors about this share sale plan. This valuation is double the company's last secondary market transaction valuation of $400 billion. In less than six years, SpaceX's valuation has grown more than 22 times from $36 billion in March 2020.

SpaceX executives also indicated that the company is weighing the possibility of going public in 2026. This would be the first public listing for the nearly 25-year-old company, potentially involving the entire business, including satellite internet service Starlink.

The significant gap between this valuation and revenue has raised concerns. Tesla currently has a market value of about $1.43 trillion, with expected revenue of $95.2 billion in 2025. In contrast, Musk stated last June that SpaceX expects revenue of about $15.5 billion in 2025. Despite the valuation being close to half of Tesla's, SpaceX's expected revenue is only one-sixth of Tesla's, highlighting the "Musk premium" effect.

According to Forbes data, SpaceX and Tesla account for the majority of Musk's net worth of $496.1 billion. The world's richest person owns about 42% of SpaceX and holds a 15% stake in Tesla, although this percentage could rise to nearly 29% based on the terms of his recently acquired compensation package.

The Dual Engine Driving Valuation Surge

SpaceX's high valuation primarily stems from its dominant position in the rocket launch market and its rapidly growing satellite internet business. Musk has stated that SpaceX will undertake about 90% of the world's space payload launch missions this year.

According to space industry publication Payload, SpaceX's revenue in 2024 is estimated to be about $13.1 billion, with Starlink contributing $8.2 billion.

Many investors believe that the Starlink business is a key factor driving SpaceX's high valuation. The company has approximately 9,000 satellites in low Earth orbit, providing high-speed connectivity services to residential users and commercial customers such as airlines.

Government Collaboration Strengthens Core Value

Reports indicate that SpaceX has become an indispensable service provider for the U.S. government, executing missions for government agencies like NASA and commercial satellite companies, launching satellites and astronauts. The company maintains deep collaborations with the Pentagon and intelligence agencies, providing launch and satellite-related projects for these clients.

The Texas-based company is also investing in the development of Starship, a large rocket designed for various missions, including NASA's astronaut moon landing program In addition, SpaceX is building a business that provides satellite connectivity directly to consumer mobile phones. The company recently agreed to acquire spectrum blocks from satellite operator EchoStar to support these efforts, committing over $20 billion in cash, stock, and debt.

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell stated in a post in September, "We are very excited to reach this agreement with EchoStar and to work with global operators to advance our mission of eliminating mobile communication blind spots around the world."

The IPO Market Rebounds to Provide Opportunities

SpaceX investors have been waiting for the company to go public for years. After three years of stagnation, the IPO market began to recover last summer.

Stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group and software manufacturer Figma both saw significant increases in their stock prices during their market debuts this year. Although the government shutdown has slowed the pace of new issuances, bankers and investors are optimistic about a return to normal IPO levels in 2026.

Last month, Musk stated at Tesla's annual shareholder meeting: "Maybe at some point SpaceX should become a public company, although there are various drawbacks to going public."

He had previously complained about the "parasitic burden" faced by public companies. Musk also mentioned that spinning off Starlink into an independent public business would only make sense when its revenue growth becomes more predictable.

This share sale is part of a tender offer, typically conducted twice a year. In these transactions, employees and investors are able to sell their existing shares, allowing them to cash out from this nearly 25-year-old company that is still not publicly listed.

If an $800 billion valuation is achieved, SpaceX would become the 13th most valuable company in the United States, following companies like JP Morgan and Walmart.

According to FactSet estimates, the projected revenues of these 12 companies this year will significantly exceed those of SpaceX. Among them, the chip manufacturer Broadcom is expected to have the lowest revenue, projected at $63 billion this year, still far above Musk's expected revenue of $15.5 billion for SpaceX