The world holds its breath! The most critical week of the year has arrived

December 08 - December 14 Key Financial Events Overview, all times are in Beijing time:

Key Focus Next Week: Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Powell's press conference statements. After the monetary policy meeting, several Federal Reserve officials will speak intensively. Major meetings in China (Political Bureau meeting and Central Economic Work Conference may be held), as well as a series of economic data, including inflation, imports and exports, and social financing. "Google Chain Core" Broadcom and Oracle earnings reports. OpenAI will release GPT 5.2.

In addition, as a super central bank week, in addition to the Federal Reserve, central banks in Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Brazil, Peru, and others will announce interest rate decisions. "Shadow Chairman of the Federal Reserve" Hassett, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo, and others will give public speeches. Meanwhile, Microsoft CEO Nadella will visit India from December 10 to 12 and meet with government officials. Doubao Mobile may be released.

Economic Indicators

• Federal Reserve FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Powell's Monetary Policy Press Conference

At 3:00 AM Beijing time on December 11, the Federal Reserve will announce the December interest rate decision, followed by Chairman Powell's monetary policy press conference. Although this meeting lacks some key data due to the recent government shutdown, the market generally expects the Fed to lower rates by another 25 basis points following the previous two rate cuts.

Bloomberg Economics expects policymakers to follow the path indicated by the September dot plot for rate cuts, and the White House National Economic Council Director, "Shadow Chairman of the Federal Reserve" Hassett, has also publicly stated that there is a consensus for a "25 basis points" rate cut. Key data supporting this expectation includes: the September PCE report showing consumer spending slowing in key areas and service sector inflation remaining moderate, as well as JOLTS job vacancy data that may indicate a mild softening in labor demand.

The main highlights of this meeting will focus on three points: First, the outcome of the internal game within the FOMC, where more than half of the members leaned towards holding steady before the silent period; the market will pay attention to whether Powell can "bridge the divide" and push for a rate cut with minimal opposition votes, demonstrating his leadership; Second, Powell's statements at the press conference, considering the weak ADP employment and Beige Book, institutions generally expect his remarks to be slightly dovish; Third, the latest quarterly economic forecasts accompanying the decision, if the Fed raises the GDP growth forecast for 2025-26 while maintaining the expectation of only one rate cut next year, it may be interpreted by the market as a hawkish signal.

This decision will not only directly affect the short-term trends of global risk assets but also the policy path signals conveyed will provide key guidance for the market's judgment on future rate cut rhythms and even the policy choices of other major central banks.

• China's Major Economic Data: CPI, PPI, Imports and Exports, Social Financing, etc.On December 8 (Monday), China will release the November import and export data. Currently, market expectations are relatively optimistic. Huatai Securities expects exports to rebound year-on-year to around 3%, mainly due to overseas inventory replenishment and the recovery of manufacturing sentiment. Zheshang Securities expects exports to increase by 3.3% and imports to increase by 2.5%, noting that the expansion of non-US markets and the China-US agreement may support export resilience and year-end imports, respectively.

On December 10 (Wednesday), China will release the November CPI and PPI data. Institutions generally expect the year-on-year increase in CPI to widen. Huatai Securities expects the CPI to rise to 1% year-on-year, up from the previous value of only 0.2%, mainly influenced by improvements in tail effects; Zheshang Securities expects it to be 0.6%, up from the previous value of 0.2%. For PPI, the year-on-year decline is expected to continue to narrow.

In addition, it is expected that China will release November financial data next week, including new RMB loans, social financing scale, and key indicators such as M1 and M2 money supply. The key signal lies in the change in M1 growth rate and whether the "scissors difference" with M2 narrows, which will intuitively reflect the activity level of corporate demand deposits and whether there are significant signs of "deposit migration" to investment or consumption areas.

Financial Events

• In early to mid-December, the domestic policy super week will arrive, with the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference likely to be held

Huatai Securities expects that in the next two weeks, the domestic policy super week will arrive, with major meetings to be held. Guosheng Securities also stated that the Politburo meetings and the Central Economic Work Conference are often held in early to mid-December each year, setting the tone for next year's economic policy. Huatai expects the macro policy focus of the meetings to center on three main lines: first, emphasizing "a good start"; second, focusing on "expanding domestic demand"; and third, promoting innovation in technology, with possibly greater attention to price factors and nominal GDP growth rate.

• Super Central Bank Week, with the Federal Reserve, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Brazil, etc., to announce interest rate decisions

During the super central bank week, the Federal Reserve, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Brazil, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Ukraine, Turkey, and other central banks will announce interest rate decisions.

• After the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, officials will speak intensively

After the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, officials will speak intensively. Next Friday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will host a fireside chat at an economic outlook seminar. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak at the University of Cincinnati. 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will discuss the economic outlook.

• Expected next Tuesday! OpenAI "emergency advance" release of GPT 5.2 to respond to Gemini 3

In the face of fierce competition from Google and Anthropic, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced this week that the company has entered a "red alert" state and plans to release the new model GPT-5.2 ahead of schedule as a response. According to The Verge, OpenAI's GPT-5.2 is planned to be released as early as December 9, significantly ahead of the originally scheduled late December plan. According to comparison images posted by netizens on social media, GPT-5.2 overwhelmingly surpasses Gemini 3 and Claude 4.5

• Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella will visit India from December 10 to 12 and meet with government officials

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella is visiting India, lasting until December 12. He is expected to meet with government officials and speak at two AI-related conferences.

• "Shadow Chairman of the Federal Reserve" Hassett attends CEO Council Summit

The Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit is being held in Washington, lasting until December 9, with attendees including Kevin Hassett, the White House National Economic Council Director, who is viewed as a candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chairman.

• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speaks at London event

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke at the Financial Times Global Boardroom meeting held in London, which runs from December 9 to December 11.

• UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves to attend hearing to defend budget including £26 billion tax increase

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves previously announced the annual budget, which includes a £26 billion (approximately $34 billion) tax increase, attempting to balance controlling borrowing, alleviating cost of living pressures, and promoting economic growth to stabilize finances. She will attend a special committee hearing to defend the budget that includes the £26 billion tax increase.

• Bridgewater's Dalio attends Abu Dhabi Finance Week

Abu Dhabi Finance Week will begin on December 8 and last until December 11, with attendees including Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio.

• Asia-Pacific Aerospace Exhibition held in Hong Kong

The Asia-Pacific Aerospace Exhibition will be held in Hong Kong from December 9 to December 11, focusing on air traffic growth and the integration of new technologies.

• Industry expects Doubao phone to be released on December 10

Byte's AI phone (Doubao phone), which is deeply integrated with the Doubao large model, is expected to be released on December 10 (source: brokerage minutes, unofficial news).

Financial Reports

• Oracle, Broadcom

Next week, semiconductor giant Broadcom and cloud services and database leader Oracle will successively release their latest quarterly financial reports. Both companies are seen as key windows for observing the investment climate in AI infrastructure, but the market's focus varies.

For Broadcom, as a core design partner for Google's AI chips (TPU), the market expects its performance to exceed consensus again. Views represented by Citigroup believe that the demand growth from Google opening TPU to external customers is the core driver, and investors will focus on specific growth data for its AI business (Citigroup expects AI sales to surge 147% in the new fiscal year) and guidance for future performance.

For Oracle, the market's concern is whether its cloud infrastructure business (OCI) can "take off," and how it will cope with the surge in capital expenditure pressure to meet large orders from clients like OpenAI. TD Cowen analysis points out that if its Texas "Star Gate" data center project in collaboration with OpenAI progresses smoothly, it will significantly alleviate capacity bottlenecks and drive OCI's accelerated growth; at the same time, if management can clearly articulate capital expenditure plans and commit to maintaining an investment-grade credit rating, it is expected to alleviate core concerns that have recently suppressed the stock priceThese two financial reports not only affect their own stock prices but will also provide key validation for assessing the next phase of trends in the AI hardware supply chain (Broadcom) and cloud service competition (Oracle)