Triple Super Cycle! Nomura: Next year, demand for DRAM, NAND, and HBM will simultaneously explode, expected to double the storage market

Nomura Securities pointed out in a report released on the 5th that the global storage market is entering an unprecedented "Triple Super-Cycle," with demand for DRAM, NAND, and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) expected to surge simultaneously in 2026.

According to news from the Wind Trading Desk, Nomura Securities predicts that driven by the construction of artificial intelligence infrastructure and a rebound in traditional server investments, the global storage market size is expected to grow by 98% year-on-year to USD 445 billion in 2026, and further expand to USD 590 billion in 2027.

The report emphasizes that this round of super cycle will last until 2027, primarily driven by a mismatch between strong demand growth and limited supply expansion. Nomura expects that demand for DRAM and NAND will grow by 30% respectively in 2026, while the demand for HBM will increase by as much as 63%. Against a backdrop of constrained supply, product prices are expected to rise significantly, with the average selling prices (ASP) of DRAM and NAND expected to jump by 46% and 65% respectively, pushing the operating profit margins of memory chip manufacturers back to historical highs.

Nomura pointed out that, in addition to the strong demand for AI servers, the recovery of the general server market is also a key driving force. As major tech companies resume investments in traditional cloud servers, demand for general server-related memory (such as DDR4 and DDR5) is expected to grow by about 50% in 2026. At the same time, the increase in AI inference workloads is driving demand for high-performance storage in data centers, with enterprise solid-state drive (eSSD) demand expected to double next year, leading to a rapid decline in NAND inventory and pushing prices higher.

AI and General Servers Resonating, Driving HBM and DRAM Demand

Nomura believes that the core of this super cycle lies in the dual resonance of AI server and general server demand. In the AI field, as NVIDIA launches the Rubin GPU platform, demand for HBM4 is expected to begin climbing in 2026. Nomura expects that SK Hynix will start shipping HBM4 in the first quarter of 2026, followed closely by Samsung and Micron Tech in the second quarter. Additionally, as ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) suppliers actively expand production, HBM manufacturers' reliance on NVIDIA will decrease starting in 2026, alleviating potential overcapacity risks.

In the general server sector, after experiencing a decline in investment in 2023 and a moderate recovery in 2024, Nomura expects that investments from major tech companies will grow by 20% to 30% in 2026. This will directly drive demand for traditional DRAM products, leading to increasingly tight supply.

Nomura predicts that due to strong demand and capacity prioritization for HBM, the shortage of commodity DRAM will persist, pushing its operating profit margin to about 70% from 2026 to 2027.

Data Center Storage Transformation, Igniting NAND and eSSD Market

In the NAND sector, eSSD is becoming the main growth engine, expected to account for about 40% of total NAND demand in 2026. Nomura analyzes that as AI workloads shift from training to inference, the market demand for high-performance storage that can provide real-time responses has surged, even leading to a shortage of HDD (Hard Disk Drive) supply, thereby accelerating the shift in demand towards SSDs The report points out that the adoption of QLC technology has improved the cost-effectiveness and total cost of ownership (TCO) advantages of SSDs. Nomura expects that driven by the dual storage demands of traditional data centers and AI data centers, coupled with a shortage of HDD supply, the demand for eSSD will grow by more than 100% by 2026. This will also drive a significant improvement in the operating profit margin of the NAND industry from its current breakeven or marginal profit state, expected to reach a prosperous level of 30% to 40% by 2026.

Supply Bottlenecks Persist, Capacity Expansion Limited by Cleanroom Shortages

Despite extremely strong demand on the supply side, the response is constrained by physical conditions. Nomura emphasizes that due to the insufficient availability of cleanrooms, the supply expansion of the global storage industry will be very limited until mid-2027. This supply bottleneck has already been reflected in the spot market, with DRAM spot prices soaring by 200% to 300% since October this year, and NAND wafer spot prices also rising by 140%.

Nomura explains that even if manufacturers decide to expand production, it usually takes a long time from equipment installation to chip output. During the current technology migration period (such as the transition to 1C nanometer process), wafer capacity will actually decrease by 10% to 15%, and the initial yield is low, leading to limited actual bit output growth. Additionally, the production of HBM4 requires more wafer consumption, further squeezing the capacity of commodity DRAM. Therefore, there is no need to worry about an oversupply of bulk storage chips in the market until 2027.

Downstream Cost Pressures Intensify, Consumer Electronics Demand May Be Suppressed

While upstream storage manufacturers will enjoy a feast, 2026 will be a challenging year for downstream PC and smartphone manufacturers. Nomura warns that the surge in storage chip prices will significantly increase the BOM costs of PCs and smartphones, thereby compressing manufacturers' profits or forcing them to raise prices.

The report predicts that due to rising costs and the early release of replacement demand, global PC shipments may decline by 2.8% year-on-year in 2026, while smartphone shipments may decline by 1.7% year-on-year. Especially for mid-range and low-end smartphones, as storage costs account for a high proportion of the BOM (over 15%), the impact will be much greater than that on flagship models. In contrast, Apple, with its high profit margins, strong bargaining power, and long-term supply agreements, will be relatively less affected by the rise in storage prices, and its supply chain is still expected to maintain moderate growth in the first half of 2026