<ul>
<li>Countdown to the Fed + the three major institutions are fully engaged, Taiwan's stock market has regained and stabilized at 28K, and the technical aspect has officially strengthened.</li>
<li>Asian capital is rotating significantly: foreign capital is withdrawing from overvalued tech stocks in the US and shifting to financial and value stocks in Asia, with Taiwan being the first to benefit.</li>
<li>The semiconductor, glass, and PCB sectors lead the surge, but the stock exchange simultaneously names 15 stocks to watch, signaling short-term overheating.</li>
</ul>
<p>With the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December (probability 96%) continuing to ferment, the three major institutions collectively bought a net of NT$ 19.117 billion in Taiwan stocks today, setting a recent single-day high. Foreign capital alone bought NT$ 14.088 billion, investment trusts bought NT$ 1.029 billion, and proprietary traders bought NT$ 4 billion. The weighted index (TAIEX) was driven up by this, rising 322.89 points to close at <strong>28,303.78 points</strong>, an increase of 1.15%, with trading volume expanding to <strong>NT$ 424.744 billion</strong>. The Asian market is rotating in sync, with foreign capital shifting from AI technology to financial and value stocks. Institutions predict that the year-end accounting rally in Taiwan stocks will continue, with the 28,500 point level expected, but caution is needed regarding speculative risks in the stocks to watch.</p>
<h3>Details of the three major institutions' net purchases: Foreign capital leads, investment trusts and proprietary trading follow</h3>
<p>According to stock exchange data, the three major institutions collectively bought a net of NT$ 19.117 billion today, continuing a trend of four consecutive days of net purchases. Foreign capital focused on weighted stocks and semiconductors, investment trusts targeted financial stocks, while proprietary traders rushed into PCB concepts.</p>
<ul>
<li>Foreign capital: net purchase of NT$ 14.088 billion, marking four consecutive days of net buying, with a cumulative NT$ 36.8 billion this week, mainly buying TSMC (10,500 lots), Hon Hai (5,200 lots), and Nanya Technology (2,500 lots).</li>
<li>Investment trusts: net purchase of NT$ 1.029 billion, shifting to buy financial stocks like Fubon Financial (3,801 lots), avoiding high-priced technology.</li>
<li>Proprietary traders: net purchase of NT$ 4 billion, rushing into memory and PCB stocks, such as Winbond (1,800 lots) and Unimicron (1,740 lots). The eight major public stocks sold a small amount of NT$ 2 billion, indicating strong bullish consensus.</li>
</ul>
<p>In December, the traditional peak season, PGIM Prudential analyst Liao Bingkun stated that historically, after a 2.15% drop in November, December sees an increase of 4-6%. With AI profits continuing, Taiwan's stock market capitalization has reached NT$ 82.5 trillion, and a trading volume recovery to NT$ 450 billion is expected.</p>
<h3>Foreign capital net inflow of USD 15 billion, funds rotating into financial and value stocks</h3>
<p>Asian stock markets mostly rose today, with the dollar weakening (the dollar index fell to 102.5) and expectations from the Fed driving the market, resulting in a net inflow of over USD 15 billion this week. The Nikkei 225 rose 1.2% to close at 39,800 points, the Korean KOSPI rose 0.8% to 2,650 points, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.3% to 3,150 points, and India's Nifty 50 rose 0.9% to 24,200 points.</p>
<p>Highlights of foreign capital inflow: India and Vietnam each attracted USD 2 billion, benefiting from GDP growth of 6-7% and supply chain shifts; the proportion of foreign capital in Japan has dropped to 40%, focusing on bank stocks (up 2.5%)
Chinese manufacturing stocks (such as CATL) rose by 1.1%, benefiting from consumer recovery.</p>
<p>Sector rotation: Funds are shifting from AI to undervalued financials and consumer stocks. The OECD report predicts an inflow of USD 50 billion into Asia by 2025. Undervalued financial stocks (with yields above 5%) have become the focus of rotation, with Japanese bank stocks rising by 2.5%, highlighting foreign capital's strategy of avoiding the high-valuation tech bubble in the US stock market.</p>
<p>The internal sector rotation in Taiwan's stock market is even more pronounced, with the semiconductor index surging by 2.31%. Five stocks, including Macronix, Winbond, VIA Technologies, Silergy, and Huadong, hit the daily limit up, while Nanya Technology rose by 6.86% to NT$163.5, benefiting from a 15% price increase in DRAM and NAND and inventory replenishment demand. The glass sector led the gains with a 4.22% increase, with Taiwan Glass rising by 4.8% to NT$38.2, and Fubon Technology rising by 7.73%. The PCB sector continued its momentum, with Unimicron rising by 4.8%, reflecting full orders for AI servers and a recovery in the global electronics supply chain.</p>
<p>Weighted stock TSMC rose by 2.4% to NT$1,495 (up NT$35), contributing over 200 points to the index, while Hon Hai and MediaTek rose by 0.43% and 1.05%, respectively. The financial sector rose by 0.28%, with Fubon Financial and Taishin Financial both rising over 2%, benefiting from the NT dollar appreciating to NT$31.25, which reduced foreign exchange costs.</p>
<p>Fubon Investment Consulting Chairman Chen Yi-Guang analyzed that this wave of rotation stems from the Fed's dovish expectations and year-end accounting logic. Historical data shows that December's average increase is 4-6%, but attention should be paid to the possibility of profit-taking if data post-Fed meeting is hot (core PCE exceeds expectations). The RSI for Taiwan stocks has risen to 68, indicating a bullish zone, with support at 28,000 points and a pressure test at 28,500 points.</p>
<h3>15 Stocks to Watch: Short Selling Rate 30-50%, Short-term Speculation Warning</h3>
<p>Despite the strong bullish atmosphere, the stock exchange today named 15 stocks to watch, including Nanya Technology, Winbond, Unimicron, and Taiwan Glass, most of which are related to semiconductors, PCBs, and shipping concepts. The significant price increases and abnormal trading have triggered regulatory alerts, with short selling ratios as high as 30-50%, highlighting the risks of major players controlling the market and short squeezes.</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Stock Code</th>
<th>Stock Name</th>
<th>Today's Increase</th>
<th>Foreign Buying (Shares)</th>
<th>Risk Warning</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2408</td>
<td>Nanya Technology</td>
<td>+6.86%</td>
<td>2,500</td>
<td>DRAM replenishment, short selling 45%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2344</td>
<td>Winbond</td>
<td>+10% (limit up)</td>
<td>1,800</td>
<td>NAND full capacity, high volatility</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3037</td>
<td>Unimicron</td>
<td>+4.8%</td>
<td>1,740</td>
<td>PCB heat, watch for shipments</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1802</td>
<td>Taiwan Glass</td>
<td>+4.8%</td>
<td>1,534</td>
<td>Glass fiber rise, major player control</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6770</td>
<td>Powerchip Semiconductor</td>
<td>+4.2%</td>
<td>1,415</td>
<td>Memory IC, short squeeze risk</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3231</td>
<td>Wistron</td>
<td>+3.5%</td>
<td>1,406</td>
<td>Servers, AI extension</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2356</td>
<td>Inventec</td>
<td>+3.1%</td>
<td>1,303</td>
<td>Cloud, financial report pressure</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3481</td>
<td>Innolux</td>
<td>+2.9%</td>
<td>1,820</td>
<td>Panel recovery, intense competition</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2887</td>
<td>Taishin Financial Holdings</td>
<td>+2.4%</td>
<td>3,801</td>
<td>Financial accounting, attractive yield</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6706</td>
<td>Wistron NeWeb</td>
<td>+6.5%</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>PCB, limit up for three consecutive days</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6281</td>
<td>Nanya PCB</td>
<td>+5.1%</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>Copper foil, full orders</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2603</td>
<td>Evergreen Marine</td>
<td>+3.2%</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>Freight rate increase, short squeeze</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2317</td>
<td>Hon Hai</td>
<td>+0.43%</td>
<td>5,200</td>
<td>EV/AI, weighted pull</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2454</td>
<td>MediaTek</td>
<td>+1.05%</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>5G, rotation in progress</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2330</td>
<td>TSMC</td>
<td>+2.4%</td>
<td>10,500</td>
<td>National treasure, ADR rise</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>(Data source: TWSE, Yahoo Finance)</p>
<p>The three major institutional investors bought a net of NT$ 19.117 billion, strengthening the Fed effect, stabilizing the Taiwan stock market at 28K. However, the overheating groups and attention stocks have soared simultaneously, indicating that although the bulls are strong, internal structural cracks have emerged.</p>
<p>Morris Chang, an analyst at Morley Investment Consulting, warned that year-end accounting may easily lure many retail investors to chase high prices, similar to the Taiwan index futures limit down event in August 2024. He suggested that investors reduce positions on rallies and shift to fundamentally sound financial and blue-chip stocks, such as Fubon Financial and TSMC, with a stop-loss set within 5%, and diversify holdings to track the Fed meeting results.</p>
<p>Overall, this wave of rebound in the Taiwan stock market is not only an extension of the Fed effect but also reflects the strategic position of the Asian market in the global capital rotation. Investors should balance optimism and caution, closely monitor tonight's U.S. data and the Fed's decisions in the coming days to seize the tail end of the year-end market</p>

<p>Driven by a net purchase of NT$ 19.117 billion from the three major institutional investors, the Taiwan stock market returned to and stabilized above 28,000 points, with an increase of 1.15%. Foreign capital has withdrawn from the U.S. stock market and shifted towards Asian financial and value stocks, benefiting the Taiwan stock market. Sectors such as semiconductors, glass, and PCBs led the gains, but the stock exchange warned of short-term overheating. Under the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut, institutions predict that the Taiwan stock market will continue its momentum until the end of the year, with 28,500 points being achievable, but caution is needed regarding speculative risks</p>

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Taiwan stock market returns to 28K, three major institutions buy aggressively with a net purchase of NT$ 19.117 billion on the eve of Fed rate cuts, Asian capital rotates significantly