EFG – Why 2026 Could Reshape Global Investment Priorities

Swiss private bank EFG’s latest outlook signals that US resilience, emerging-market re-acceleration, Europe’s structural transformation, and the capital demands of an accelerating AI race will define how and where capital is deployed in the year ahead. The report issued on Tuesday states that the US is positioned to be the fastest-growing advanced economy in 2026, powered by innovation, fiscal stimulus, and policy support. EFG International (EFG) highlights three pillars driving this momentum: long-standing corporate flexibility, a defined federal growth strategy, and continued IT leadership. The US remains «at the forefront of global IT innovation», with private-sector technology investment contributing significantly to GDP expansion. Lower Interest Rates, But… Across advanced economies, EFG expects interest rates to reach a trough in the first half of the year. Policy settings are nearing neutral territory, meaning cuts beyond early 2026 appear unlikely. The environment favours shorter-duration fixed income exposure and selective opportunities in emerging countries offering high real yields. Brazil stands out, with bond markets providing elevated carry even as inflation stabilises. Debt Sustainability Enters Spotlight Fiscal credibility will be rigorously tested. While the US could calm investor concerns if its «3–3–3» plan stabilises debt around one hundred percent of GDP, Europe presents sharper risks. EFG argues that France and the UK face heightened vulnerability as markets scrutinise their commitments to restore balance sheets – a reminder that «when confidence evaporates bond markets will look vulnerable once again». Geopolitical Shifts Reinforce Multipolar Market Structure Rivalry between the world’s two largest economies is reshaping supply chains and industrial policy. The US is increasingly adopting «capitalism with American characteristics» by taking strategic stakes in critical sectors such as chips and rare earths, while China deepens alliances through trade and infrastructure partnerships. This evolving «transactional reality» does not suggest rapid decoupling but a long-term bifurcation in economic loyalties. AI Scale-Up Demands Unprecedented Capital and Energy Data infrastructure investment continues to surge, with global data-center spending potentially exceeding $500 billion in 2025. The majority has come from US hyperscalers, yet free-cash-flow constraints mean new financing routes – debt, equity, and vendor lending – are rising in importance. At the same time, AI-related electricity demand is forecast to more than double its share of total US consumption by 2030, driving renewed focus on generation capacity and energy security. Conclusion: Opportunity Remains Abundant, But… With US growth out front, Europe accelerating structural reform, and emerging markets trading at a compelling discount, 2026 could mark a pivot away from the narrow leadership of recent years. The capital gulf required to sustain the AI race adds a new investment frontier – one in which energy access, technological sovereignty and geopolitical alignment grow increasingly inseparable. For financial decision-makers, the message is clear: opportunity remains abundant, but risk and reward are being redrawn on a global scale.