<p>On December 10, it will be mostly cloudy with a few showers at first. The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting today and tomorrow, with the results to be announced at midnight Hong Kong time on Thursday. Kevin Hassett, the Director of the White House National Economic Council and a potential future Federal Reserve Chair, stated that the Fed has more room to cut rates than 0.25 percentage points this week. However, he is not currently a voting member of the Fed, so his dovish stance did not provide much stimulus to the U.S. stock market. The U.S. stock market had mixed developments overnight, with the Dow opening down 14 points, rising by as much as 218 points, then falling by 205 points at one point, closing down 179 points or 0.38% at 47,560; the S&amp;P 500 retreated 6 points or 0.09% to 6,840; the Nasdaq rose 30 points or 0.13% to 23,576.</p>
<p>Among the heavyweight stocks, although the U.S. relaxed restrictions on Nvidia's export of H200 chips to China, China restricted domestic companies from using H200 chips, causing its stock price to drop by 1.2% at one point, with the closing decline narrowing to 0.3%; Meta softened, falling 1.5%; Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella announced after visiting India and meeting with Prime Minister Modi that the company will invest $17.5 billion in India over the next four years to expand its AI and cloud business, with its stock price fluctuating but stabilizing. JPMorgan Chase executives warned that the consumer environment is slightly fragile, leading to a 4.7% drop in its stock price, making it the largest decliner among Dow components, while Goldman Sachs rebounded by 1.1%. Google announced the launch of AI glasses in 2026, dragging down its partner Meta's smart glasses development with Ray-Ban sunglasses manufacturer EssilorLuxottica, whose stock price fell by 5.6%.</p>
<h2>Goldman Sachs: Clients Are Cautious About AI and U.S. Stock Market Prospects</h2>
<p>Goldman Sachs pointed out that after the significant adjustment in November, clients have become cautious about the investment prospects of AI and the U.S. stock market. Among 782 institutional investors surveyed, the average expectation is that the S&amp;P 500 will rise to between 7,000 and 7,500 by the end of next year, with optimism significantly lower than at the end of October, when many clients expected the index to reach 7,200 by January. Although optimism has waned, 1% of respondents expect the U.S. economy to fall into recession next year, and only 10% estimate growth below 1.5%, reinforcing expectations of a non-recessionary easing cycle, which supports risk assets such as stock prices.</p>
<p>Before the Fed meeting, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2.34 basis points to 4.141%, while the more interest rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield dropped by 1.22 basis points to 3.5628%. Kristina Hooper, Chief Market Strategist at Man Group, the largest publicly traded hedge fund company, stated that if the bond market begins to question the independence of the next Federal Reserve Chair, authorities may implement quantitative easing (QE) measures to lower long-term bond yields. The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.22% to 99.31, while the Japanese yen fell by 0.67% to 156.96 against the dollar. Bitcoin once again fell below $90,000, dropping by 1.95% to a low of $89,554, before rebounding over 5% to nearly $94,500</p>
<h2>Hong Kong Stock Market Tests Support at 25,000 Level</h2>
<p>After failing to stabilize at the 26,000 level multiple times last week, the Hong Kong stock market has shown a weak trend this week. Following five days of rebound, the market opened with two consecutive declines. Yesterday, the Hang Seng Index opened slightly higher but then fell, with the decline expanding to 378 points at one point, closing down 331 points or 1.28% at 25,434. The trading volume was HKD 210.2 billion, with two consecutive days of trading exceeding HKD 200 billion, an increase compared to last week's average of HKD 180 billion. Although important meetings are being held in mainland China, and authorities have reiterated that they will continue to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to maintain economic momentum, there has been no significant new policy announced, and no large-scale substantial policies have been introduced recently, leading to a lack of upward momentum in the market. However, there have been no major negative news, and the Hong Kong stock market continues to fluctuate within a range. Although the Hang Seng Index has fallen below the 100-day moving average for two consecutive trading days, the short-term technical trend has deteriorated. It is estimated that the market will shift from the narrow range around the 26,000 level last week to test the support at the 25,000 level. However, it is expected that the support at the 25,000-25,200 level is not weak. If this level is successfully defended, a rebound may occur. Nevertheless, multiple moving averages have turned from previous support levels into significant resistance. The first resistance for the market's rebound today is at 25,600, with the next resistance at 25,750-25,800. To reverse the current weakness, the market must at least return to the 20-day moving average and above the 26,000 level to break free from the weak trend and regain an upward trajectory.</p>
<p>Gu Tianhou</p>

NVDA

MSFT

<p>Hong Kong stocks are slightly oversold, and there may be a short-term rebound. The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting today and tomorrow, with results announced on Thursday. U.S. stocks had mixed developments overnight, with the Dow Jones down 179 points, the S&P 500 down 6 points, and the Nasdaq up 30 points. Nvidia's stock price was affected by restrictions from China, Meta fell 1.5%, and Microsoft announced an investment of $17.5 billion in India. JP Morgan warned of a fragile consumer environment, with its stock price down 4.7%. Goldman Sachs pointed out that clients are cautious about AI and the outlook for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 expected to rise to 7,000 to 7,500 by the end of next year. Before the Federal Reserve's meeting, U.S. bond yields fell</p>

- On December 10, the Federal Reserve is set to announce interest rate decisions, with expectations of a potential cut exceeding 0.25%.  
- U.S. stock markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones falling 179 points, while major companies like Nvidia and Meta faced stock price fluctuations due to regulatory news and market sentiment.  
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is testing the 25,000 support level, with recent declines attributed to a lack of substantial policy changes from mainland authorities despite ongoing economic meetings.

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Hong Kong stocks are slightly oversold, and there may be a short-term rebound | Gu Tianhou