Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.: China's current account surplus and net inflow of securities investment funds are expected to drive the RMB/USD exchange rate to break through the 7.0 mark
Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd. Chief Economist Lu Zhe believes that 2025 will not only mark the end of the RMB depreciation cycle over the past three years but may also initiate a new round of appreciation. It is expected that in 2026, against the backdrop of a structurally weak US dollar index, China's current account surplus and net inflows of securities investment funds are likely to push the RMB to break through the 7.0 mark against the US dollar; if the annualized exchange rate volatility can be maintained in the range of 3.0%—4.0%, by the end of 2026, the RMB to US dollar exchange rate may rise to the range of 6.70—6.80
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