Copper prices have repeatedly hit new highs, accumulating a 36% increase this year. Citigroup expects prices to reach $15,000 per ton in the second quarter of next year

Driven by a surge in demand due to supply disruptions and concerns over U.S. tariffs, copper prices have reached new highs this year. According to CNBC, Citigroup stated that with strong demand in the energy transition and artificial intelligence sectors, copper prices are expected to continue to rise sharply next year. Electrification, grid expansion, and data center construction require a large amount of copper for wiring, transmission, and cooling equipment construction. As a leading indicator of the global economy, the spot price of copper reached approximately USD 11,800 per ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) last Friday (12th), setting a historical high, while the three-month futures closed at approximately USD 11,500 per ton. The LME copper spot price has increased by about 36% this year and approximately 9% over the past month.

Citigroup indicated that the limited supply of copper mines and the hedging reasons leading to U.S. stockpiling of copper have supported the rise in copper prices. The bank expects the U.S. to stockpile global copper inventories, which will further reduce the already scarce copper stocks outside the U.S. in a bullish scenario. Citigroup anticipates that copper prices could rise to USD 13,000 per ton early next year, and may even reach USD 15,000 per ton in the second quarter of next year (indicating about a 27% increase from the current spot price).

On the other hand, Andrew Glass, CEO of Avatar Commodities, expects copper prices to rise to "stratospheric" new highs (originally referring to an altitude of about 10 to 50 kilometers above the Earth's surface, meaning extremely high), especially as U.S. stockpiling of copper erodes global copper supply capacity. He stated that the current upward trend in copper prices reflects a highly unconventional distortion, primarily driven by tariff expectations rather than traditional supply and demand relationships, and added that China's copper demand has been disappointing in recent months.

Reports quote ING commodity strategist Ewa Manthey as saying that copper prices are expected to rise to as much as USD 12,000 per ton in the second quarter of next year, believing that high copper prices will squeeze profit margins in energy-intensive sectors.

CNBC cited experts stating that another major reason for the rise in copper prices is market concerns that the U.S. may impose import tariffs on refined copper starting in 2027, boosting demand. StoneX senior financial analyst Natalie Scott-Gray noted that U.S. tariff concerns have significantly tightened the global copper supply-demand relationship, leading to a large influx of refined copper into the U.S.

Reports from global financial data service providers indicate that U.S. imports of refined copper have surged by 650,000 tons this year, raising inventories to approximately 750,000 tons. Scott-Gray stated that due to higher copper prices in the U.S. compared to other regions, traders have a strong incentive to ship large quantities of copper to the U.S