JOINN rose nearly 11% as the price of experimental monkeys skyrockets, expected to drive fair value returns

JOINN (06127.HK) H shares opened 0.3% higher this morning (17th) and the gains expanded, reaching a high of HKD 23.16, a two-month high. It is currently reported at HKD 22.66, up 10.75%, with a trading volume of 7.3026 million shares, involving HKD 162 million. Technically, its H shares found support at the 250-day moving average (approximately HKD 16.05) in December, and the 10-day moving average (approximately HKD 18.72) is approaching the 50-day moving average (approximately HKD 18.75), indicating a potential "golden cross." JOINN (603127.SH) A shares rose 6.5% in the half-day session, reported at RMB 36.6.

In terms of news, it is reported that the price of experimental monkeys has surged, with the price of crab-eating macaques aged 3 to 5 years now reaching RMB 140,000 each, and a supply-demand imbalance has emerged this year. The price of experimental monkeys has returned to above RMB 100,000, which is closely related to the upward cycle of innovative drugs this year and the recovery of orders in the CRO industry. Currently, several CRO companies are investing in experimental monkeys, among which JOINN and YinuoSi (688710.SH) have a significant amount of experimental monkey resources.

Fangzheng Securities believes that leading CROs with rich strategic resource reserves are expected to benefit from the industry recovery and the fair value gains of monkey prices. Taking JOINN as an example, assuming a fair value of RMB 84,900 per experimental monkey based on the average price in 2024, if the price rises to RMB 140,000 by the end of this quarter, and assuming a monkey output rate of 17%, based on the known 23,200 monkeys, the estimated additional fair value in 2025 would be approximately RMB 220 million (excluding the impact of newly acquired monkeys and juvenile and aging monkeys)