Excluding AI, on the brink of recession

As 2025 comes to a close, the supply of labor in the United States continues to recover, while the unemployment rate rises further. The "service-employment-income-consumption" chain in the U.S. weakens, and the economy is on the brink of recession. The unemployment rate has become a golden indicator for observing the U.S. economy, and the Federal Reserve's tolerance for the rising unemployment rate stems from expectations of a weakening labor supply. However, the reality is that labor supply and demand are growing in deep red states, while employment levels are contracting in blue states, leading to a noticeable rise in the unemployment rate. The ongoing upward trend in the unemployment rate necessitates addressing how to limit its increase