Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) have quietly become the two most dominant forces inside the Magnificent Seven, riding different paths to the same destination: artificial intelligence supremacy.



Nvidia's GPUs remain the backbone of the global AI buildout, powering everything from data centers to cutting-edge model training. 



Alphabet, meanwhile, is pushing its own vertically integrated AI stack — from custom TPUs to Gemini — embedding intelligence directly across Search, Cloud and consumer products.



The market thus far has rewarded both approaches. Nvidia is up 33% year-to-date through Dec. 17, while Alphabet has surged 62%. 



Zooming out further tells an even more dramatic story: since early 2023, Alphabet shares are up roughly 250%, while Nvidia has delivered a staggering 1,120% return.



That explosive run has made Nvidia the world's biggest company today, with a market capitalization of about $4.318 trillion — even briefly touching $5 trillion earlier this year. Alphabet ranks third at approximately $3.7 trillion, behind Apple's $4.05 trillion valuation.



Yet traders see a far closer race ahead.



On Polymarket, both Nvidia and Alphabet are assigned a 35% probability of being the world's most valuable company by the end of 2026. 



A $100 bet on Alphabet overtaking Nvidia to become the world's biggest company by the end of next year would pay out $265 if it happens — with nearly identical returns available for those wagering that Nvidia holds onto the crown.



Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) trails with a 14% chance, followed by Microsoft Corp. (NYSE:MSFT) at 9%. 



Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) sit further back, at 4% and 3%, respectively.















<h2>How Could Alphabet Overtake Nvidia As World’s Biggest Company?</h2>



For Alphabet to dethrone Nvidia as world’s biggest company, it needs to outperform by a meaningful margin.



The current valuation gap between the two companies is about $600 billion. 



If Nvidia's market cap were to grow 10% in 2026, it would climb from roughly $4.3 trillion to about $4.75 trillion. For Alphabet to leapfrog Nvidia in that scenario, its shares would need to outperform Nvidia by roughly 19 percentage points.



In practical terms, that would mean Alphabet gaining about 29% in a year where Nvidia rises 10%, lifting Google's valuation to around $4.77 trillion. 



Any performance gap of 19 percentage points in Alphabet's favor could hand it the crown — assuming today's market caps as the starting line.



The bet, then, is whether Alphabet's AI monetization, advertising leverage and cloud growth can accelerate faster than Nvidia's already-dominant chip business.



<h2>Wall Street Still Backs Nvidia</h2>



Where traders see a coin flip, Wall Street analysts remain more decisive.



Based on median 12-month price targets, analysts expect Nvidia's reign to continue. Consensus estimates point to Nvidia shares reaching about $250 over the next year, or roughly 40% upside from the current price near $177.



Alphabet's outlook is far more muted by comparison. Analysts see a median 12-month target of $330, implying just 6% upside from its current level around $306.



That gap underscores the tension at the core of the debate: prediction markets see a neck-and-neck race for the world's largest company, while Wall Street analysts continue to model an extended run of Nvidia's dominance.



By the end of 2026, the outcome may hinge on a single question: will the AI arms race ultimately reward the company supplying the picks and shovels, or the one embedding intelligence into every layer of the digital economy?



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Image created using artificial intelligence via Gemini.

Nvidia and Alphabet are leading the AI race, with Nvidia's GPUs and Alphabet's AI stack driving growth. Nvidia is currently the world's largest company, but both have a 35% chance of being the biggest by 2026. Nvidia's market cap is $4.318 trillion, Alphabet's $3.7 trillion. Analysts favor Nvidia's continued dominance, while prediction markets see a close race. The outcome may depend on whether AI rewards hardware suppliers or those embedding intelligence across digital platforms.

- Nvidia Corp. and Alphabet Inc. have emerged as key players in the AI sector, leveraging different strategies to achieve dominance.  
- Nvidia's GPUs are integral to AI infrastructure, while Alphabet develops a comprehensive AI ecosystem across its platforms.  
- Although traders view a competitive future for both companies, Wall Street analysts project Nvidia will maintain its lead, with estimates indicating substantial growth for Nvidia compared to more modest expectations for Alphabet.

Nvidia Vs. Alphabet: Which Could Be The World's Biggest Company By End-2026?