Gold's Next Stop $6,000? JP Morgan Says The Rally Isn't 'Exhausted'

On March 14, 2025, gold quietly broke through $3,000 an ounce. At the time, that milestone alone felt historic. But within weeks, the metal was already trading near $3,500. By October, gold – as tracked by the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) – had cleared $4,000 for the first time ever. Now, as the year draws to an end, prices are hovering around $4,350. In less than a year, gold has rallied nearly 65% year-to-date — the bullion’s best year since 1979 — a move that would typically spark talk of exhaustion. Instead, some of the biggest banks on Wall Street are arguing the opposite: that this rally may still be in its middle innings. JP Morgan's $5,000 Call — And The $6,000 Question J.P. Morgan Global Research expects gold prices to push towards $5,000 an ounce next year, with a longer-term upside scenario that could see prices reach $6,000. The reasoning isn't rooted in hype. According to JP Morgan's commodity strategists, global diversification trends are still unfolding. Central banks continue to increase gold's share of their reserves, investors are allocating more capital to non-yielding hedges, and mine supply remains slow to respond to higher prices. "While this rally in gold has not, and will not, be linear, we believe the trends driving this rebasing higher in gold prices are not exhausted," said Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at J.P. Morgan. Investors, Central Banks Are All Rushing To Gold In the third quarter of 2025 alone, JPMorgan estimates that investor and central bank gold demand reached roughly 980 tonnes, more than 50% above the average of the prior four quarters. Looking ahead to 2026, the bank expects demand to average about 585 tonnes per quarter, split between steady central bank buying, resilient bar and coin demand, and ETF inflows that are likely to be front-loaded into the year. And despite gold already trading near record highs, JPMorgan says central banks haven't blinked. Demand remained elevated through the third quarter of 2025, a signal that higher prices alone haven't been enough to slow accumulation. “Gold ETFs could continue to attract inflows in the coming months on expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) easing cycle, driving support for prices,” the bank stated. There's also a broader ownership story unfolding. JPMorgan points to new potential sources of demand, ranging from Chinese insurance companies to less traditional players emerging from the crypto ecosystem — widening the pool of buyers beyond what past cycles have seen. That’s why the bank says it has a strong conviction that gold demand has enough firepower to push prices toward $5,000 an ounce in 2026. And perhaps more tellingly, JPMorgan believes those assumptions may be conservative. “We have laid out a scenario where if diversification of just 0.5% of foreign U.S. asset holdings into gold took place, it would be enough new demand to drive prices to $6,000/oz,” said Gregory Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy at J.P. Morgan. “With gold mine supply relatively inelastic and slow to respond to these higher prices and demand expected to remain robust, risk continues to skew toward reaching this multi-year target much quicker than expected," he added. Read Next: Nvidia Vs. Alphabet: Which Could Be The World’s Biggest Company By End-2026? Photo: Shutterstock