HANG SENG maintains China's GDP growth forecast at 4.9% for this year, expects 4.8% growth next year

HANG SENG BANK's Economic Research Department maintains its forecast for China's economic growth at 4.9% this year and expects the growth rate to be 4.8% next year. The bank mentioned that given the mainland's economic growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters, it is expected that even if the economy slows further in the fourth quarter, it will not hinder the overall economic growth target of around 5% for the year.

The bank pointed out that although facing challenges from the China-U.S. trade disputes, robust foreign trade remains an important positive factor supporting the mainland's economic performance this year. However, as the boosting effect of "export grabbing" diminishes, future foreign trade growth is expected to slow down. At the same time, this year's investment performance has been poor, failing to provide the counter-cyclical support to the economy as in the past.

Therefore, the bank believes the key lies in whether private consumption can become the main engine of overall economic growth, and it is expected that the mainland government will adopt more proactive consumption stimulus measures