Goldman Sachs Commodity Outlook: Central Banks Buy Gold + Federal Reserve Rate Cuts, Bullish on Gold to Hit $4,900 in 2026!

Goldman Sachs reiterates bullish gold price forecast of $4,900 by 2026, driven by central bank demand and interest rate cuts. According to the Wind Trading Desk, on December 18, Goldman Sachs released a research report listing "going long on gold" as a core high-confidence trading strategy. Goldman Sachs believes that against the backdrop of geopolitical competition and the "AI and national power race," emerging market central banks will continue to buy gold to diversify reserve risks. This structural central bank buying, combined with the cyclical support from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, constitutes a dual engine driving gold prices higher. The report points out that gold prices have recorded an increase of about 64% in 2025 due to competition between ETF investors and central banks in a limited physical market. Goldman Sachs expects that as the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in 2026, the inflow of funds into gold ETFs will further exacerbate supply-demand tensions. Analysts emphasize that central bank demand is not only sticky but also significantly exceeds historical averages, providing solid bottom support for gold prices. Additionally, Goldman Sachs sees upside risks beyond the baseline forecast, primarily from potential diversification by private investors. Analysts estimate that if the allocation of gold in U.S. private financial portfolios increases by just 1 basis point, it would be enough to push gold prices up an additional 1.4%. This indicates that once private capital expands its gold exposure for hedging purposes, the explosive potential of gold prices may exceed current model expectations. The Dual Engines of the $4,900 Target: Structural and Cyclical Resonance According to a report by Goldman Sachs' commodity research team, including Daan Struyven and Samantha Dart, gold prices will continue to perform strongly in 2026. The bank maintains its baseline scenario forecast that gold prices will rise to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, representing an upside of about 14% from current levels. This forecast is based on two core logics: first, structural factors, namely the sustained high demand from global central banks; second, cyclical factors, namely the financial environment easing due to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The report notes that although the overall returns of the commodity index may slow due to weakness in the energy sector, precious metals, as an asset class benefiting from declining interest rates, will continue to outperform the market in 2026. Particularly as U.S. interest rates decline, ETF investors, who were net sellers from 2022 to 2024, have begun to return to the market, competing with central banks for limited gold supplies. This synchronous resonance between "committed buyers" (central banks) and "returning buyers" (ETFs) is key to driving prices higher. The New Normal of Central Bank Gold Purchases: Hedging Against Geopolitical Risks Goldman Sachs elaborates on the structural changes in central bank gold purchasing behavior in the report. The report argues that the freezing of Russia's foreign exchange reserves in 2022 was a watershed moment that fundamentally changed the perception of geopolitical risks among emerging market reserve managers. To hedge against sanction risks and geopolitical uncertainties, emerging market central banks are accelerating the diversification of their reserve assets from U.S. dollar assets to gold. Data shows that Goldman Sachs expects global central bank gold purchases to remain strong in 2026, with an average monthly purchase volume of about 70 tons. This figure is close to the average of 66 tons over the past 12 months but is four times the average monthly purchase volume of 17 tons before 2022 Analysts specifically pointed out that central banks in emerging markets, including China, still have a relatively low proportion of gold reserves compared to their global counterparts. Considering the ambition for the internationalization of the renminbi and the need to hedge against geopolitical risks, these central banks still have significant room to further increase their gold holdings. Survey data also shows that global central banks' willingness to allocate to gold is at a historical high. Upside Risk: Potential Entry of Private Investors In addition to strong buying from central banks, Goldman Sachs also highlighted the enormous "option value" from the private sector. The report analyzes that the current proportion of gold ETFs in U.S. private financial portfolios is only 0.17%, which is 6 basis points lower than the peak in 2012, indicating extremely low allocation congestion. Goldman Sachs' model calculations show that if the allocation of gold in U.S. financial portfolios increases by 1 basis point (driven by incremental investors rather than natural price appreciation), gold prices would be boosted by approximately 1.4%. This means that if private investors begin to widely adopt gold as a core hedging tool against the backdrop of intensified international competition, rising supply chain disruption risks, and hedge funds seeking portfolio insurance value, the price of gold could significantly exceed the benchmark targets set by central bank buying. Goldman Sachs believes that in the current macro environment, gold and commodities have significant insurance value in portfolios, especially when the stock and bond markets cannot effectively diversify against the inflation and growth risks brought about by "supply-side shocks."