Is UBS’s Côte d’Ivoire Focus Reframing Murphy Oil’s (MUR) Risk‑Reward Profile in Deepwater Exploration?

Earlier in December 2025, UBS reiterated its Neutral rating on Murphy Oil while highlighting the company’s preparation for a major 2026 exploration program across Côte d’Ivoire, Vietnam, and the Gulf of Mexico, alongside recent outperformance versus production guidance and lower operating costs. The broker’s focus on Murphy Oil’s high risk/reward Côte d’Ivoire exploration campaign underscores how frontier deepwater success could materially reshape the company’s long-term resource base and earnings mix. We’ll now examine how UBS’s emphasis on Murphy Oil’s upcoming high risk/reward Côte d’Ivoire wells could influence the company’s broader investment narrative. This technology could replace computers: discover 28 stocks that are working to make quantum computing a reality.Murphy Oil Investment Narrative RecapTo own Murphy Oil, you have to be comfortable with a pure-play upstream story that leans heavily on offshore exploration and execution, with cash flows tied closely to oil prices. The latest UBS update does not materially change that picture, but it does sharpen the near term focus on the 2026 exploration program in Côte d’Ivoire as a key catalyst and on the inherent exploration and capital intensity risks that come with it. Against this backdrop, Murphy’s Q3 2025 results are particularly relevant, as they combine production outperformance and lower operating costs with a swing to a small net loss of US$2.97 million on US$732.99 million of revenue. For investors, that contrast between operational progress and more volatile earnings frames how frontier deepwater spending and any future cost surprises could affect margins, free cash flow, and ultimately the appeal of the Côte d’Ivoire program as a value driver. Yet alongside the upside of new offshore discoveries, investors should be aware of the increased exposure to high cost, lumpy deepwater spending that... Read the full narrative on Murphy Oil (it's free!)Murphy Oil's narrative projects $3.1 billion revenue and $452.6 million earnings by 2028.Uncover how Murphy Oil's forecasts yield a $28.93 fair value, a 7% downside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesMUR 1-Year Stock Price Chart Seven Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Murphy Oil span roughly US$1.24 to US$36.29 per share, highlighting how far apart individual views can be. When you weigh those opinions against the company’s heavy reliance on high risk offshore exploration, it underlines why understanding several different viewpoints on Murphy’s future cash flows really matters.Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Murphy Oil - why the stock might be worth as much as 17% more than the current price!Build Your Own Murphy Oil NarrativeDisagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.A great starting point for your Murphy Oil research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.Our free Murphy Oil research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Murphy Oil's overall financial health at a glance.Ready To Venture Into Other Investment Styles?Every day counts. These free picks are already gaining attention. See them before the crowd does:We've found 13 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.Uncover the next big thing with financially sound penny stocks that balance risk and reward.Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Mobile Infrastructure for Defense and DisasterThe next wave in robotics isn't humanoid. Its fully autonomous towers delivering 5G, ISR, and radar in under 30 minutes, anywhere.Get the investor briefing before the next round of contractsSponsored On Behalf of CiTech