<div id="readability-page-1">As 2025 draws to a close, it marks an important milestone in the reconfiguration of the global economic system. Every century is defined not only by changes in technological leadership and shifts in global power, but also by the restructuring of the global financial system. The 20th century was the century of the US dollar, but with the arrival of the 21st century, the contours of the global macroeconomic system have begun to change.\nA recent International Monetary Fund study, “Playing with Blocs: Quantifying Decoupling”, examines how global trade is being reorganised between two emerging blocs centred on the United States and China. The findings suggest world economic development may not return to globalisation but instead be oriented towards the strengthening of a macro-regional structure.\nThis logic fully aligns with the latest US national security strategy, which emphasises the formation of macro-regions and continuing US competition with China. In effect, the US is re-evaluating the format of global leadership in favour of building a self-sufficient macro-region under its leadership, apparently leaving Asia to China.\nWith the dollar increasingly not the only currency used for international settlements, the question is which financial instrument or resource is likely to prove most effective. Given the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) as a high-technology driver, energy appears to be the most natural answer.\nA new economy based on knowledge, information and technology does not function without access to affordable resources and human capital. Only a limited number of countries have both a strong resource base and a long-term commitment to investment in science and education.\nChina stands out, having developed its own large language models and accelerated the deployment of AI technologies. It is close behind the US in this field, and Russia and other countries are also advancing in this direction, having recognised this key global development trend at an early stage.\n\n\nEurope, by contrast, is falling behind and gradually losing access to affordable energy which will constrain the uninterrupted operation of data centres and large-scale computing facilities required for AI development.\nAgainst this background, energy is very likely to emerge as the most important resource of the 21st century. It underpins the growth of AI, development of new modes of transport and the operation of the digital infrastructure necessary for a new type of financial system.\nThis system could not only accelerate cross-border settlements in national currencies but also stimulate the emergence of new digital currencies whose value is linked not to gold, but to clean energy. In this sense, energy does not replace money. Rather, it becomes a more fundamental category than money.\nChina’s experience is illustrative: over the past 40 years, it has achieved an extraordinary expansion in electricity generation, increasing its output by 9,661.9 terawatt-hours from 1985, a rise of more than 2,300 per cent. This accounted for nearly half of global growth. By comparison, US electricity generation has increased by just 1,730.1 TWh, or 65 per cent.\n\n\nSeparately, the IMF recently examined water as a strategic factor in global economic development and one of the most important resources of the 21st century.\nThe IMF, in its report “Macro-Criticality of Water Resources”, emphasises not only agricultural or environmental considerations, but also the macroeconomic consequences. It cites a report by the global conservation body WWF that puts the economic value of water and freshwater ecosystems at US$58 trillion, roughly 60 per cent of global gross domestic product.\nClimate change amplifies the water challenge. Under current emissions trajectories, global temperatures could rise by about 3.6 degrees Celsius by 2100, while the temperature of surface freshwater bodies may increase by 1.3-4.1 degrees by the end of the 21st century. This has critical implications for industrial cooling and power generation.\nCurrently, during the summer months, around 70 per cent of installed global thermal power capacity remains available, but by the end of the century this could decline by 6-11 per cent. Higher water temperatures and falling river levels are already forcing advanced economies to suspend operations at thermal and nuclear power plants.\n\nHi-tech sectors face particularly acute constraints. Water is essential for cooling data centres, and an increasing number of large-scale computing projects are being delayed or blocked altogether due to insufficient water. For economies developing AI, this represents a serious challenge to growth.\nAt the global level, studies using long-term modelling suggest output losses associated with water scarcity can amount to 0.2-0.5 per cent of GDP under scenarios without water reallocation.\nAt the macro-regional level, the consequences are far more severe. The Global Commission on the Economics of Water estimates that in low-income countries structural losses may reach 10-15 per cent of GDP.\nAt the country level, the IMF cites a 2023 study which finds that losses in years when water availability declines can amount to 2.8-3.1 per cent of GDP, while another study in the same year suggests that droughts during key crop-growing months can reduce growth in developing countries by about 1.4 percentage points per year.\nAgainst this backdrop, World Bank data shows Russia and China as among the world’s most water-abundant countries, and among the top five in renewable freshwater.\nWater is becoming a full-fledged macroeconomic factor. In an era of macro-regions, global influence will increasingly be shaped by the capacity to supply complex technological systems with sufficient energy and water. This is not a distant projection but an emerging reality.\n</div>

<p>The global economic focus is shifting from the US dollar to energy and water resources. Energy is crucial for AI and digital infrastructure, while water scarcity poses challenges due to climate change. The IMF highlights the macroeconomic importance of these resources, with China leading in energy expansion and water scarcity impacting GDP.</p>

- As 2025 concludes, a reconfiguration of the global economic system is evident, with a shift from the US dollar's dominance towards new macro-regional structures centered around the US and China.  
- The International Monetary Fund highlights energy and water as critical resources for the 21st century, pointing out that China's significant advancements in energy generation contrast with Europe's limitations.  
- The importance of these resources is underscored by their macroeconomic implications, where water scarcity could severely impact GDP, particularly in developing countries.

Forget the US dollar. Watch water and energy resources instead