Bitcoin's $150,000 Dreams Are Dead, Says Anthony Pompliano—But So Are 80% Drawdowns

Anthony Pompliano on Tuesday said Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) volatility compression has killed dreams of a $150,000 moonshot—but it also means traders won’t see another 80% bloodbath either. The $150,000 Dream Died With Volatility Bitcoin hit $126,000 in late 2025, and bulls were calling for $150,000 or higher by year-end. Instead, BTC reversed hard, dropping to $87,000 and turning negative for the year. Pompliano, founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management, said on CNBC's Squawk Box that volatility compression has changed the game. Bitcoin’s historical 70-80% drawdowns came with explosive upside—parabolic rallies that doubled or tripled prices in months. Now that volatility has been cut in half. The result is straightforward: no more blowoff tops, but also no more catastrophic crashes. Matthew Sigel from VanEck explained the math behind this shift. If Bitcoin’s volatility gets cut in half, you’d expect a 40% drawdown instead of 80%. That’s roughly what happened when BTC dropped from $126,000 to $80,000, representing about 36%. The trade-off is clear. Holders sacrifice the euphoric rallies, but they also avoid the 75-80% wipeouts that defined previous cycles. BTC Still Up 100% In Two Years Despite the recent pullback, Pompliano reminded traders that Bitcoin is up 100% over two years and nearly 300% over three years. The compound annual growth rate over the past decade is 70%. The asset is still performing well, just without the violent swings. Volatility compression means more institutional-friendly price action with steadier gains, smaller drawdowns, and less drama. That’s good news for long-term holders and institutions building positions. However, it’s frustrating for traders who made fortunes timing the 80% crashes and 10x rallies. Coinbase And Robinhood Battle For Everything Exchanges Pompliano, an early Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ:COIN) investor, said the exchange is pivoting to an “everything exchange” where users can trade stocks, crypto, prediction markets, and more on one platform. Robinhood Markets Inc (NASDAQ:HOOD) is doing the same thing. Coinbase came from crypto, Robinhood came from brokerage, and now traditional exchanges and financial players are joining the fight. BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK) CEO Larry Fink recently said AI and tokenization are the two big themes of finance going forward. Everyone is converging on the same model: 24/7 markets, everything tradeable, & AI-powered infrastructure. Coinbase has an advantage with over 100 million+ users and a head start in crypto infrastructure. However, traditional players bring deep pockets and regulatory expertise to the table. The competition will be cut-throat, but ultimately the winner is retail through lower fees, faster execution, and better pricing. AI Offense, Crypto Defense Pompliano laid out his thesis for the next cycle. AI agents will serve as an offense, going out and making money for companies by automating tasks and eventually replacing jobs. Then companies will take that capital and deploy it into crypto as defense. This includes Bitcoin, stablecoins, and tokenized gold to protect purchasing power on their balance sheets. According to Pompliano, this combination of AI driving revenue and crypto preserving value is where finance is headed. Both startups and large firms like BlackRock are already moving in this direction. What Happens Next Bitcoin’s lack of a clear catalyst means the market is range-bound. There’s no major regulatory breakthrough on the horizon, no new ETF wave, and no sovereign buying frenzy to push prices higher. Pompliano thinks the compressed volatility means Bitcoin will grind rather than explode. That could mean a slow climb back toward $100,000-$120,000 over several months. Alternatively, it could mean more consolidation in the $80,000-$90,000 range. The key question is whether the 40% drawdown holds, or if something breaks and forces Bitcoin lower. If volatility stays compressed, $80,000 should act as the floor. However, If volatility spikes again, all bets are off. Read Next: What’s Going On With ZIM Stock Tuesday? Image: Shutterstock