Breakfast | The three major indices opened lower and rose higher, continuing four days of gains, with the S&P closing at a new all-time high

Market Overview Tech stocks supported the three major U.S. stock indices to open lower and then rise, achieving a four-day winning streak, with the S&P 500 hitting a record high; following news of chip tariffs, NVIDIA surged 3%; Tesla fell over 0.6%, the only decliner among the seven tech giants; mining stock Freeport McMoRan rose 2.5%; after the "oral weight loss miracle drug" was approved in the U.S., Novo Nordisk's European stock rose over 9%, driving the pan-European index to set a new historical high for the third time in four days. France passed a short-term budget plan, with ten-year French bonds leading the way among European bonds. Strong U.S. GDP data undermines rate cut expectations, following the GDP report, U.S. Treasury prices stopped rising and fell, with yields erasing declines and briefly hitting a nearly two-week high; the dollar index narrowed its decline, approaching the day's high. After Japanese officials hinted at readiness to intervene, the yen rebounded over two days; offshore RMB hit a 14-month high, breaking 7.02 during intraday trading for the first time in over a year; Bitcoin fell over 2% from its daily high, dropping below $87,000. Gold, silver, and copper continue to hit historical highs, with spot gold and silver rising over 1% and nearly 4% respectively during intraday trading, but experienced a "flash crash" after the U.S. GDP report; London copper broke $12,000 for the first time in history; the U.S. continues to cut off oil trade with Venezuela, with crude oil rising for five consecutive days, reaching at least a nearly two-week high, up nearly 6% over five days. During the Asian session, the three major A-share indices rose and then fell slightly, with the Hainan sector maintaining its strength, while the commercial aerospace concept declined. Key News General Secretary of the Communist Party of China made important instructions on the work of state-owned enterprises, emphasizing the need to fully recognize responsibilities and missions, better serve the overall work of the Party and the country, contribute greater strength to the construction of Chinese-style modernization, and strengthen the tackling of key core technologies. National Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Work Conference: In 2026, focus on stabilizing the real estate market, implementing city-specific policies to control increments, reduce inventory, and optimize supply, further leveraging the "white list" system for real estate projects, and accelerating the construction of a new model for real estate development. The U.S. has added a "untrusted supplier list" for the drone sector, and the Ministry of Commerce of China urged the U.S. to immediately withdraw the relevant measures; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the U.S. listing DJI drones on the "regulated list": strongly opposing the unreasonable suppression of Chinese enterprises. Beijing issued the country's first batch of special license plates for L3-level autonomous vehicles on highways, with three routes available for activation. Ahead of its IPO, Zhipu AI launched its flagship large model GLM4.7. U.S. third-quarter GDP grew 4.3%, exceeding expectations and marking the fastest growth in two years; the Federal Reserve favors the core PCE inflation indicator, which increased by 2.9%; October durable goods orders fell 2.2% month-on-month, significantly below expectations, but indicators show business equipment spending remains strong; consumer confidence in December has declined for five consecutive months; the labor market is recovering: ADP weekly average private employment has seen positive growth for three consecutive weeks Trump's Necessary Conditions: Dare to cut interest rates, "I can never become Federal Reserve Chairman if I disagree"; Bessent: The Federal Reserve has room to adjust the inflation target to 2%, discussing 1.5%-2.5% or 1%-3%; Federal Reserve Chairman candidate Hassett: The pace of interest rate cuts in the U.S. lags far behind other central banks. France passes a short-term budget to maintain operations until January next year, avoiding a "U.S.-style" government shutdown. U.S. media: The U.S. increases the deployment of special operations aircraft and personnel equipment to the Caribbean, further pressuring the Venezuelan government. Market Report U.S. and European Stock Markets: The S&P 500 rose 0.46%, closing at 6909.79 points; the Dow Jones rose 0.16%, closing at 48442.41 points; the Nasdaq rose 0.57%, closing at 23561.844 points. The European STOXX 600 index rose 0.34%, closing at 588.73 points. A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.07%, closing at 3919.98 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.27%, closing at 13368.99 points. The ChiNext Index rose 0.41%, closing at 3205.01 points. Bond Market: By the end of the bond market, the yield on the U.S. ten-year benchmark Treasury bond was about 4.16%, unchanged from Monday; the two-year Treasury yield was about 3.53%, up about 2 basis points during the day. Commodities: WTI February crude oil futures closed up about 0.64%, at $58.38 per barrel; Brent February crude oil futures closed up about 0.50%, at $62.38 per barrel. COMEX February gold futures closed up 0.81%, at $4505.7 per ounce. COMEX March silver futures closed up 3.75%, at $71.137 per ounce. LME copper closed up about 1.1%, at $12060 per ton. LME nickel closed up about 3%, at $15739 per ton. Key News Details Global Highlights 新华社: General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee made important instructions on the work of central enterprises, emphasizing the need to fully recognize responsibilities and missions, better serve the overall work of the Party and the country, and contribute greater strength to the construction of Chinese-style modernization. Central enterprises should focus on their main responsibilities, continuously optimize the layout of the state-owned economy, effectively enhance core functions, and improve core competitiveness. They should be based on the real economy, strengthen key core technology breakthroughs, and promote deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation. Further reforms should be deepened, the modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics should be improved, corporate governance structures should be enhanced, and efforts should be made to solve deep-seated problems that restrict enterprise development, striving to build world-class enterprises To coordinate development and security, effectively prevent and resolve risks, and continuously strengthen the foundation for the safe development of enterprises. National Housing and Urban-Rural Development Work Conference: Focus on stabilizing the real estate market in 2026. The conference pointed out that the focus is on implementing city-specific policies to control increments, reduce inventory, and optimize supply, further leveraging the role of the "white list" system for real estate projects, and supporting the reasonable financing needs of real estate companies. Accelerate the construction of a new model for real estate development, orderly establish foundational systems, and implement a corporate system for real estate development project companies. In terms of commercial housing sales, promote the existing housing sales system to achieve "what you see is what you get," fundamentally preventing delivery risks. How to focus on stabilizing the real estate market? Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development decodes the key work of the 14th Five-Year Plan. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development stated that in 2026, it will promote the construction of modern people's cities, focus on stabilizing the real estate market, accelerate the quality upgrade of the construction industry, and solidify the foundation for high-quality development. Specifically for the real estate market, it will implement city-specific policies to control increments, reduce inventory, and optimize supply, further leverage the role of the "white list" system for real estate projects, accelerate the construction of a new model for real estate development, deepen the reform of the housing provident fund system, and implement actions to improve property service quality. The U.S. adds "untrusted supplier list" in the drone sector, China's Ministry of Commerce urges the U.S. to immediately withdraw related measures. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce stated that the U.S. is using national power to attack foreign companies, including Chinese enterprises, which is a typical market distortion and unilateral bullying practice. China urges the U.S. to stop its erroneous actions and immediately withdraw the related measures. If the U.S. continues to act unilaterally, China will resolutely take necessary measures to firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds to the U.S. listing DJI drones on the "regulated list": strongly opposes unreasonable suppression of Chinese enterprises. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that China firmly opposes the U.S. broadening the concept of national security, creating discriminatory lists, and unreasonably suppressing Chinese enterprises. The U.S. should correct its erroneous practices and provide a fair, just, and non-discriminatory environment for Chinese enterprises to operate. Beijing issues the first batch of special license plates for L3-level highway autonomous vehicles in the country, three road sections can be opened. According to CCTV News, on December 23, Beijing officially issued the first batch of special license plates for L3-level highway autonomous vehicles to three intelligent connected cars. This marks the transition of China's autonomous vehicles from testing demonstrations to formal mass production, leading the way into the L3-level autonomous driving era, becoming a milestone event in the process of automotive intelligence On the eve of the IPO, ZhiPu AI launches flagship large model GLM-4.7. In several mainstream public benchmark tests, GLM-4.7 surpassed the leading models currently on the market in some metrics. Data shows that in the professional coding evaluation system Code Arena, which involved one million users in blind testing, GLM-4.7 ranked first among open-source models and first among domestic models, surpassing GPT-5.2. Architecturally, GLM-4.7 introduces "retention thinking" and "tiered thinking" mechanisms, significantly enhancing the stability and controllability of complex tasks. U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter reaches 4.3%, the fastest growth in two years, Fed favors inflation indicator core PCE increased 2.9%. The significant GDP increase is attributed to resilient consumer and business spending and more stable trade policies. Consumer spending grew by 3.5% in the third quarter, far exceeding the second quarter's growth of 2.5%; business investment increased by 2.8%, with equipment spending rising by 5.4%, benefiting from strong growth in computer equipment spending and record-high investments in AI data centers. Core inflation remains above the Fed's target, but expectations of easing tariff policies have made the market optimistic, suggesting that the Fed may slow down interest rate cuts next year due to an overheating economy. U.S. October durable goods orders fell 2.2% month-on-month, significantly below expectations, but core durable goods orders have increased for seven consecutive months. Durable goods orders increased by 4.7% year-on-year, above the inflation level. This indicates that manufacturing orders are still maintaining growth in absolute terms. The indicator directly included in GDP for equipment investment—non-defense capital goods orders for aircraft in October grew stronger than expected. Excluding aircraft, non-defense capital goods orders increased by 0.5% month-on-month, exceeding expectations for four consecutive months, with the September growth rate revised up to 1.1%, reflecting strong corporate equipment spending at the beginning of the fourth quarter. U.S. consumer confidence has declined for five consecutive months, tying the longest streak of declines since 2008. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board continues to show weakness, reflecting households' deep concerns about prices and employment, leading to cautious large purchases. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index, released on the same day, remains in contraction territory but has significantly rebounded from -15 to -7, and businesses' expectations for commercial activity, orders, and employment over the next six months have all jumped to positive high levels, indicating that business entities are rapidly building confidence in the medium-term outlook. Labor market recovery! U.S. ADP private employment added an average of 11,500 jobs per week, maintaining positive growth for three consecutive weeks Trump sets necessary conditions: Dare to cut interest rates, "I can never become Chairman of the Federal Reserve if I disagree." He posted that he hopes the next Federal Reserve chairman will cut interest rates when the economy and market perform well, rather than "choking off the market" early due to inflation concerns. He criticized the current market logic, which has turned into "good news is actually bad for the stock market," emphasizing that low interest rates help drive stock market rises, boost the economy, and improve housing affordability, stating that a rising stock market could push the U.S. GDP growth by 10, 15, or even 20 percent or more in a year. Bessent: The Federal Reserve has room to adjust the inflation target of 2%, 1.5%-2.5% or 1%-3% is worth discussing. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent supports re-evaluating the Federal Reserve's inflation target after the inflation rate steadily falls back to 2%. Bessent suggested that once the inflation target is re-anchored, it could be discussed to change it to a range, such as 1.5%-2.5% or 1%-3%. Bessent acknowledged the public's concerns about the cost of living, stating, "We understand that the American people are deeply in pain," attributing it to high prices during the Biden administration. Federal Reserve Chairman candidate Hassett: The U.S. is far behind other central banks in cutting interest rates. Hassett stated that strong GDP data is "an excellent Christmas gift for the American people"; of the 4.3% U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter, 1.5 percentage points were attributed to Trump's tariff policy reducing the U.S. trade deficit; if the new year maintains a 4% GDP growth rate, monthly job growth will return to the range of 100,000 to 150,000. France passes a short-term budget bill, avoiding a "U.S.-style" government shutdown. The French National Assembly passed a temporary budget bill for 2026 on Tuesday, allowing the government to continue taxing and borrowing without a complete fiscal budget approved, thus avoiding a government shutdown. This "special bill" extends the fiscal arrangements of 2025 into the new year and is expected to be quickly approved by the Senate, ensuring government operations until January next year. U.S. media: The U.S. military increases special operations aircraft and personnel equipment in the Caribbean, further pressuring the Venezuelan government. It is unclear how many personnel and equipment these aircraft transported, but the relevant aircraft come from military bases where multiple U.S. special operations forces are stationed. Tariff expectations resonate with mine shutdowns, London copper breaks through $12,000 for the first time, setting a new historical high. London copper has risen about 37% this year, poised for the largest annual increase since 2009. This is mainly due to two factors: first, expectations of Trump's tariffs have led traders to rush copper to the U.S., resulting in a surge in imports and intensified global bidding; Secondly, mines in multiple regions including the Americas, Africa, and Asia have suspended production, leading to a 3% decline in output from the world's largest mining companies this year, resulting in severe supply shortages. Citigroup predicts that under a bull market scenario, copper prices could rise to $15,000. Gold and silver hit new historical highs, poised for the largest annual increase since 1979, driven by two major factors. On Tuesday, spot silver first broke through $70 per ounce, with a daily high increase of nearly 3.7%, while spot gold approached $4,500 during the day, rising over 1%. Amid escalating geopolitical tensions and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, gold prices have increased by more than two-thirds this year, while silver prices have risen about 140%, showing even stronger momentum. Guangzhou Futures Exchange: Adjusting trading fee standards, price fluctuation limits, and margin standards for platinum and other related futures contracts. Is uranium the "next gold"? Goldman Sachs: Supply shortage rate will expand to 32%, with at least 20% upside by the end of next year. The supply shortage is driven by the accelerated global nuclear energy construction and the extension of reactor lifespans. Currently, the long-term contract market has seen "volume drop and price rise," confirming supply-demand tension. Alpha Summit Wang Lei from Ant Group: The training cost of vertical large models has decreased by an order of magnitude, and the implementation of financial AI requires building three major cornerstones of "trustworthy intelligent agents". Wang Lei pointed out that the emergence of open-source foundational models has shortened the iteration cycle of vertical large models from several months to two weeks, and the computing power requirement has dropped from "ten thousand cards" to "hundred cards." At the same time, he emphasized that the implementation of financial AI must also focus on rigor, professionalism, and compliance, with the primary task being to build a system that suppresses hallucinations and maintains safety standards. He believes that the application of large models in the industry is not only a technological revolution but also a reshaping of business strategy. Domestic Macro "National team" takes action, the reusable carrier rocket Long March 12 甲 successfully makes its maiden flight. This rocket is aimed at meeting the high-frequency launch demand for low-orbit satellite constellations and is China's second liquid oxygen-methane carrier rocket to attempt recovery on its maiden flight, laying the foundation for future low-cost, high-frequency launches. This initiative is being advanced in parallel with the commercial space venture Zhuque-3, forming a complementary development pattern between the national team and commercial space, jointly serving the demand for a large-scale low-orbit satellite constellation network. The Long March 12 甲 carrier rocket successfully entered orbit on its maiden flight, with one booster recovery failure, but the flight test mission achieved basic success The National Development and Reform Commission and two other departments issued a notice on improving kindergarten charging policies. The notice mentioned that for profit-oriented private kindergartens, the charging will be subject to market regulation prices, with kindergartens determining reasonable charging standards based on operating costs, market supply and demand, etc., and reporting to education administrative departments at or above the county level. Education, development and reform, and finance departments in various regions should strengthen supervision, and if necessary, conduct cost investigations to guide reasonable charging and curb excessive fees. Goldman Sachs reviews the top ten insights for the Chinese stock market in 2025: AI re-evaluates technology, anti-involution restores profits, and a slow bull market is on the way. DeepSeek ignited the AI sector, increasing market value by $2 trillion, the "anti-involution" policy may drive corporate profits to surge by 50%, the "14th Five-Year Plan" thematic portfolio has a one-year return rate of up to 68%, and domestic and foreign capital is accelerating its return. Goldman Sachs expects the Chinese stock market to rise by 38% by the end of 2027, with profit growth taking over from valuation repair. Domestic Companies Over ten thousand "zombie accounts" rarely attacked Kuaishou live broadcast, security experts reveal the "attack chain": attacks at the level of tens of thousands of accounts, the overall cost may exceed one million. On the evening of December 22, the Kuaishou live broadcast platform was suddenly subjected to a large-scale cyber attack, with tens of thousands of manipulated "zombie accounts" flooding in simultaneously, pushing pornographic, violent, and other illegal content, causing some live broadcast rooms to exceed ten thousand viewers. The platform urgently removed the live broadcast channel and reported to the police. Security experts believe that the attack exposed the platform's protective challenges when facing organized, large-scale automated attacks. Shanghai Securities Journal: SMIC has raised prices for some production capacities by about 10%. Some companies reported that the price increase is expected to be implemented soon. However, due to previously low prices for storage products, wafer fabs had already implemented price increases ahead of time. Semiconductor industry insiders interpret that the rise in raw material prices is also a partial factor for SMIC's price increase. In addition, TSMC confirmed the integration of 8-inch production capacity and plans to shut down some production lines by the end of 2027, which may trigger expectations for price increases among wafer fabs. ByteDance's Doubao will be featured in the Spring Festival Gala. AI to C products are accelerating towards universal adoption. Goldman Sachs: The gap between China and the U.S. in AI has narrowed to "3-6 months," Doubao mobile phone indicates "changes in application traffic patterns". Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the cloud computing and data center sectors as well as AI full-stack beneficiaries. It is expected that the capital expenditure of leading cloud service providers in China will further rise to 500 billion yuan by 2026, a 20% increase from the estimated over 400 billion yuan in 2025 Among them, the proportion of domestic chips and computing power is expected to significantly increase from 20-30% in 2025 to 40% in 2026. Report: ByteDance plans capital expenditure of 160 billion yuan in 2026, half will be invested in AI chips. According to reports, ByteDance's preliminary plan for capital expenditure in 2026 shows an increase compared to this year's 150 billion yuan. The investment focus will be on AI infrastructure construction, with about half of the funds allocated for purchasing advanced chips to develop AI models and applications. JD responds to "warehouse theft": Paris warehouse has resumed normal operations. JD's warehouse in the Paris region of France was robbed on Monday, and local police have intervened for investigation. JD stated that the warehouse has now resumed normal operations, and the "significant loss data" disclosed by relevant parties differs greatly from the actual situation. Earlier reports indicated that over 50,000 units of 3C digital devices (including mobile phones, computers, and tablets) were stolen, valued at approximately 37 million euros, equivalent to 306 million yuan. Overseas Macro Japan's new fiscal year budget and defense budget may both hit record highs. The preparation work for Japan's fiscal year 2026 budget draft has entered the final stages, with the total budget expected to reach 122 trillion yen, approximately 5.5 trillion yuan, of which the defense budget will reach 9 trillion yen. From December 23 to 24, Japan's Ministry of Finance will consult with various departments on the fiscal year 2026 budget draft and make a formal decision at the cabinet meeting on the 26th. Trump's capital restructuring: a trillion-dollar-level shift in capital flow. Trump is reshaping the flow of funds in the U.S. with high-intensity policies: relaxing bank regulations to activate the treasury market, promoting the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reversing clean energy subsidies, and guiding capital back to fossil fuels, while opening private equity investment channels for 401(k) plans. This policy combination is driving the migration of trillions of dollars in capital, reshaping the asset allocation logic between Wall Street and ordinary households. Goldman Sachs top trader year-end review: historic highs for gold, silver, and copper, increasing divergence between stocks and bonds, structural differentiation in U.S. stocks. Goldman Sachs trader Pasquariello pointed out that the market in 2025 will exhibit three major characteristics: first, an epic bull market for precious metals, with gold and silver achieving their best performance since 1979; second, a rare divergence in the stock and bond markets, with the stock market pricing in economic acceleration while the bond market remains cautious, leading to a high level of contradictory signals; third, ongoing internal differentiation in U.S. stocks, with technology stocks strengthening their advantage over small-cap stocks, as the market progresses with low volatility and high dispersion BofA Survey: Fund Managers Almost Fully Invested Going into the New Year, Cash Levels Drop to 3.3% Historical Low. The BofA survey shows that fund managers' stock positions continue to rise, indicating that investors are entering the new year with unprecedented optimism. However, the S&P 500 valuation has exceeded levels prior to the bursting of the internet bubble, raising concerns about excessive AI capital expenditures and overly optimistic corporate earnings expectations. Analysts warn that high valuations put significant pressure on fundamentals, and a weakening U.S. labor market could bring recession risks back into focus, with increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook for 2026. Dollar Experiences a "Golden Cross" for the 39th Time Since 1970, and It's a Very Rare One. This is the 16th time since 1970 that a golden cross has occurred while the 200-day moving average is declining, and under these special circumstances, the probability of the dollar rising is as high as 80%. The S&P 500's initial performance after the "golden cross" has been mixed, but it typically strengthens after 35 trading days. The probability of crude oil rising within 35 trading days after this signal is 100%. Overseas Industry/Company U.S. Approves First "Oral Weight Loss Miracle Drug", Novo Nordisk Takes the Lead with Stock Price Surge, Eli Lilly Expected to Get Approval in March. The U.S. FDA has approved Novo Nordisk's first oral GLP-1 weight loss drug, giving it a competitive edge over Eli Lilly. The oral version of Wegovy will be launched in the U.S. in early January at an initial cash price of $149 per month. Clinical data shows it can help patients lose up to 16.6% of their weight and reduce cardiovascular risks. Eli Lilly's similar oral drug is expected to be approved in March. Make Big Money or Catch Flying Knives? U.S. AI Infrastructure Spending Set to Surpass Office Buildings for the First Time, with Oracle Signing $248 Billion in Lease Deals. Debt Issuance Approaching Historical Highs! AI Infrastructure Burning Cash, U.S. Corporate Debt Total Reaches $1.7 Trillion. Morgan Stanley's Heavyweight Robotics Yearbook (VII): Brain-Computer Interfaces Will Be the Ultimate Physical Manifestation of AI. Brain-computer interfaces are rapidly moving from medical applications to the ultimate vision of human-machine symbiosis, with the total market size in the U.S. expected to reach $320 billion by 2045. Meanwhile, various "embodied AI" professional robots are penetrating industries from warehousing logistics to food service, as the global automation wave reshapes productivity, forming a vast market composed of cutting-edge BCI and widespread robotic applications What are the highlights of the humanoid robot market in 2026? Morgan Stanley: Short-term speculation will continue, Tesla is the focus, and the U.S. government and major companies will enter the market, but the gap between China and the U.S. is widening. Morgan Stanley's report believes that the enthusiasm for the humanoid robot market will persist in 2026, but warns of the significant gap between speculation and practical scalability. The industry faces risks of technological development difficulties and a reshuffling of startups, and the gap between China and the U.S. is accelerating—China is consolidating its lead based on manufacturing advantages, while U.S. policy support is unlikely to reverse the trend in the short term. European car sales increased for five consecutive months in November, Tesla sales fell by 11%, and BYD surged over 220%. Electric vehicles are the main driving force, with pure electric vehicles accounting for 21% of the EU market, 26% in the UK, and as high as 98% in Norway. Significant growth in electric vehicle registrations was observed in major markets such as Germany, Italy, and Spain. The market share of gasoline and diesel vehicles dropped from 45.8% to 36.1%. Opening the path to physical AI? Google bets on "world models," hoping smart glasses become the true "killer application" of AI. Reports indicate that Google plans to launch AI smart glasses in collaboration with Samsung in 2026, competing with Meta through spatial awareness and environmental prediction technology. With the performance resurgence of Gemini 3 and organizational integration, Google is reshaping the AI competition landscape while hoping to establish leadership in the next-generation computing platform through hardware commercialization. Reports suggest Alibaba may make a significant purchase of AMD MI308 chips, as Su Zifeng just visited China last week. Alibaba is reportedly considering purchasing up to 50,000 MI308 AI chips, which are seen as strong competitors to NVIDIA's AI chips. Analysts caution that the final terms and timing of the deal remain uncertain. Betting on AI cybersecurity, ServiceNow announces $7.75 billion acquisition of Armis. This transaction is expected to be completed in the second half of 2026. ServiceNow stated that the deal will expand its market opportunities for security and risk solutions to three times the original and further consolidate its position in the AI security field. ServiceNow's stock price fell by as much as 3%, closing down over 1.4%. Today's News Preview The Bank of Japan will release the minutes of the October monetary policy meeting. The number of first-time unemployment claims in the U.S. last week. On Christmas Eve, Hong Kong stocks will trade half a day, and U.S. stocks will close early