Before the long holiday, it is temporarily difficult for the Hong Kong stock market to stabilize at 26,000｜Gu Tianhou

On December 24, the weather was generally clear and warm during the day, with cooler temperatures expected tomorrow. The United States announced that GDP growth for the last quarter exceeded expectations, recording the fastest growth in two years for the third quarter, which may hinder the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates. Bond yields rebounded, dragging down U.S. stocks temporarily, but ultimately, the U.S. stock market showed some recovery during the Christmas trading period. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down 42 points and saw its decline widen to a maximum of 108 points before rebounding by 164 points, closing at 48,442, up 79 points or 0.16%; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed near their highs, with the S&P 500 up 31 points or 0.46%, at 6,909; and the Nasdaq up 133 points or 0.57%, at 23,561. Nvidia's stock price rose 3%, making it the largest gainer among Dow components; Amazon rose 1.6%; Alphabet rebounded by 1.5%. McDonald's fell 1.7%, making it the worst-performing Dow component. U.S. Third Quarter GDP Accelerates to 4.3%, Exceeding Expectations The U.S. GDP for the third quarter accelerated to 4.3% from 3.8% in the second quarter, far exceeding expectations of 3.3%, primarily benefiting from strong consumer and business spending, as well as a reduction in the impact of trade policies. As for the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve focuses on, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.9% quarter-on-quarter, in line with expectations. Following the release of the GDP data, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose by 3.5 basis points to 4.204%, before softening; the more interest rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield rose by 5.2 basis points to 3.555%. The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.45% to 97.85, as the market speculated that Japan might intervene in the currency market, with the yen rising by 0.89% to 155.65 against the dollar. Bitcoin retraced by 2.28% to $86,834. Metal Prices Have Entered an Extremely Overbought Zone In the commodity market, geopolitical tensions continue, with spot gold prices reaching new highs, rising by as much as 1.27% to break the $4,500 mark and set a new record, while silver first broke through $70, rising by 3.64% to $71.5815; London copper futures first surpassed $12,000 per ton, rising by 2.07% to a historical high of $12,167. Recently, metal prices have surged sharply, entering an extremely overbought zone, and it is expected that metal prices will perform more steadily next year, making it difficult to replicate this year's rocket-like rise. Hong Kong Stocks Expected to Fluctuate Narrowly in Half-Day Market Hong Kong stocks showed mixed performance yesterday, with the Hang Seng Index opening up 74 points, rising by 125 points at one point to a high of 25,927, before turning down in the afternoon, closing down 27 points at 25,774; this ended a four-day rebound, with trading volume shrinking to HKD 157.1 billion, as trading was quiet before the long holiday. Entering December, trading in Hong Kong stocks has remained subdued, resulting in insufficient upward momentum, but with selling pressure not severe, the decline has also been moderate, and Hong Kong stocks have yet to break out of the current range-bound market. However, with the U.S. stock market experiencing a Christmas rally, the overnight futures and ADRs followed the U.S. stock market slightly upward, returning above the 25,800 level, and this morning's futures also hovered around the 25,800 level. It is expected that the market will open slightly higher this morning, but due to the half-day trading session and the upcoming long holiday, along with next Tuesday's futures settlement and only three and a half trading days next week, Trading remains quiet. Due to the little change in the number of shorted shares, there is currently no incentive to hold short positions. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a narrow range for half a day, with no significant changes. Referring to this month's options distribution, maintaining the settlement price between 25,300 and 26,000 on the settlement day is most favorable for the market makers, and it is also the most painful settlement point for options players. It is estimated that the market will find it difficult to move out of this range before the settlement next Tuesday. Note that multiple moving averages are converging in the area of 25,650 to 25,950, and it is not ruled out that the market will still fluctuate within this range today, unless the market breaks below the 25,600 level or stabilizes above the 26,000 level; otherwise, a breakthrough is unlikely. Participation from market players is low for the half-day market, and many are wrapping up early for Christmas. Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas!