Breakfast | The Christmas market begins, and the three major indices continue to rise in the half-day market

Market OverviewU.S. stocks continued to rise slightly on the shortened trading day before Christmas. Last week's initial jobless claims fell. The VIX dropped to 14, the lowest point since early December 2024. All sectors of the U.S. stock market rose on Wednesday except for the energy sector, with consumer staples leading the gains. Nike rose 4.6%, and Apple CEO Tim Cook purchased $3 million worth of the company's stock.U.S. Treasury yields fell broadly, with the 10-year yield down 2.73 basis points.The dollar briefly fell to a nearly three-month low before fluctuating upward, ultimately rising 0.23% from its daily low. The renminbi rose for three consecutive days, nearing the 7.00 mark.Cryptocurrencies were weak, with Bitcoin dropping 1.5% before rebounding to flat. Ethereum remained slightly down after a rebound.Gold briefly broke above $4,500 but fell 1.7% from its daily high under profit-taking pressure. Silver fluctuated at high levels. WTI crude oil traded below $58.5.During the Asian session, AH shares collectively rose, precious metals were strong, commercial aerospace and semiconductors were active, and the offshore renminbi approached 7.Key NewsChina's central bank's fourth-quarter meeting: Continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy and strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments.Beijing real estate new policy: Relax home purchase conditions for non-Beijing households and support housing needs for families with multiple children.Bessenet hints at the future direction of the Federal Reserve: Inflation "range control," cancellation of the "dot plot," support for the Treasury, and a return to "behind the scenes."On the eve of Christmas, the U.S. job market warmed up, with last week's initial claims at 214,000, slightly down from the previous value.Elon Musk predicts the U.S. economy will achieve double-digit growth within 18 months, with AI as a key driving force.Silver LOF hit the daily limit again! Some investors received "abnormal trading" alerts and will be closely monitored. Silver arbitrage is "flooding the screens," and "erroneous orders" alerts have also come!Reports: NVIDIA hinted at delivering H200 chips to Chinese customers before the Spring Festival. Is a $20 billion acquisition of AI chip startup Groq in the works? NVIDIA denies: it's just reached a licensing agreement for inference technology.Intel saw its U.S. stock drop 5% pre-market, with reports stating that NVIDIA has paused testing Intel's 18A process.Market ClosingU.S. and European stock markets: The S&P 500 index rose 0.32% to 6,932.05 points, continuing to set a new closing historical high. The Dow Jones rose 0.60% to 48,731.16 points, reaching a new closing historical high. The Nasdaq rose 0.22% to 23,613.307 points. The European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.01% at 588.70 points.A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,940.95 points, up 0.53%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,486.42 points, up 0.88%. The ChiNext Index closed at 3,229.58 points, up 0.77%.Bond market: The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond fell 2.93 basis points to 4.1335%. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury bond fell 3.06 basis points to 3.5014%Commodity: COMEX gold futures fell 0.01% to $4,505.40 per ounce. COMEX silver futures rose 1.04% to $71.875 per ounce. WTI February crude oil futures closed at $58.35 per barrel. Brent February crude oil futures closed at $62.24 per barrel.News DetailsGlobal HighlightsChina's central bank fourth quarter meeting: Continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, increase counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts. The meeting pointed out that various tools should be comprehensively used to strengthen monetary policy regulation, grasp the strength, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation according to domestic and foreign economic and financial situations and financial market operations. Maintain ample liquidity, ensuring that the growth of social financing scale and money supply aligns with economic growth and overall price level expectations, promoting low-cost comprehensive financing for society.New policies in Beijing's real estate market: Relaxing home purchase conditions for non-Beijing households, supporting housing needs of families with multiple children. First, relax home purchase conditions for non-Beijing households. The social security or individual income tax payment period for non-Beijing households purchasing commercial housing within the Fifth Ring Road will be reduced from the current "3 years" to "2 years"; for purchasing commercial housing outside the Fifth Ring Road, it will be reduced from "2 years" to "1 year." Second, support housing needs of families with multiple children. Families with two or more children can purchase one additional set of commercial housing within the Fifth Ring Road, meaning: Beijing households with multiple children can purchase 3 sets of commercial housing within the Fifth Ring Road; non-Beijing households with multiple children who have paid social security or individual income tax for 2 consecutive years in Beijing can purchase 2 sets of commercial housing within the Fifth Ring Road.Besenser hints at future direction for the Federal Reserve: Inflation "range system," abolishing "dot plot," supporting the Treasury, returning to "behind the scenes". U.S. Treasury Secretary Besenser supports re-evaluating the Federal Reserve's inflation target after the inflation rate steadily declines to 2%. Besenser suggested that once the inflation target is re-anchored, it could be discussed to change it to a range, such as 1.5%-2.5% or 1%-3%. Besenser criticized quantitative easing as an "engine of inequality," advocating for the central bank to retreat behind the scenes, reduce intervention, and coordinate with the Treasury.The U.S. job market warms up before Christmas, with last week's initial claims at 214,000, slightly down from the previous valueDespite a slight increase in the number of people continuously receiving unemployment benefits to 1.923 million, it remains significantly below the high levels seen earlier this year. Overall data shows that the labor market remains resilient, with corporate layoffs continuing to be at low levels.Musk predicts the U.S. economy will achieve double-digit growth within 18 months, with AI as a key driving force. Musk expects the U.S. economy to enter a period of double-digit growth in the next 12 to 18 months, stating that if the application of intelligence is seen as a proxy for economic growth, "triple-digit growth could be achieved in about five years."Silver LOF hits the limit up again! Some investors receive "abnormal trading" alerts and will be closely monitored. Silver arbitrage "goes viral," with "fat finger" and "abnormal trading" alerts issued!On December 24, Guotou Ruijin Silver LOF temporarily suspended trading for one hour in the morning, and upon resuming, it hit the limit up, with an intraday increase of 9.99% by the time of the lunch break. In addition to the fund company continuously warning about premium risks, regulators and brokerages are also monitoring "abnormal trading" of this product.The epic short squeeze in silver has ignited a speculative frenzy, with Guotou Silver LOF being targeted by funds, leading to consecutive limit ups, with premiums once soaring to 68%, even triggering "fat finger" incidents. The fund side urgently hit the brakes to limit purchases, but high premiums and the T+2 mechanism amplify the illusion of arbitrage, with liquidity traps pushing this carnival toward the eye of a risk storm.Report: Nvidia hints at delivering H200 chips to Chinese customers before the Spring Festival. According to Global Times, sources say Nvidia plans to deliver its second-ranked H200 chips to Chinese customers in mid-February next year. The company plans to use its inventory to fulfill the first batch of orders, with an expected total shipment of 5,000 to 10,000 chip modules, equivalent to about 40,000 to 80,000 H200 chips. However, there remains significant uncertainty regarding the smooth delivery of the H200 chips.Acquisition of AI chip startup Groq for 20 billion? Nvidia denies: it's just a licensing agreement for inference technology. Nvidia stated it will integrate Groq's products into its own offerings. Groq announced it has reached a non-exclusive licensing agreement allowing Nvidia to use its inference technology while still operating independently, with the company's founder, president, and other team members joining Nvidia to assist in advancing this technology. If the reported transaction scale is accurate, Nvidia's acquisition would nearly double Groq's "valuation" compared to three months ago when it completed financingIntel's US stock fell by 5% before the market opened, reports: Nvidia has temporarily halted testing Intel's 18A process. Intel's 18A process testing has been temporarily halted by Nvidia, causing Intel's US stock to drop by 5% before the market opened. Although Intel claims that its 18A and next-generation 14A technologies are progressing smoothly, the market still questions the competitiveness of the company's advanced processes. This move may affect its competitive position with TSMC in the foundry sector. Previously, Intel received a $5 billion equity investment from Nvidia but did not secure any manufacturing commitments.Trump wants to "ensure space superiority," will US "space stocks" become the next "quantum technology"? Trump signed an executive order establishing a lunar base strategy, coupled with Musk's ally taking over as NASA director, leading to a reevaluation of the US space sector, with total market value tripling in a year. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the prospects of commercial space and defense contractors, and SpaceX's IPO next year will further boost market sentiment, making space technology a new investment frenzy.The new "space concept" stock Starfighters Space attracts all attention, operating the world's only commercial supersonic fleet. The newly listed space concept stock Starfighters Space has seen dramatic price fluctuations, soaring 371% on Monday, then plummeting nearly 60% on Tuesday, and dropping over 4% on Wednesday. Market analysis suggests that the low float and speculative business prospects are the main reasons for the extreme price volatility. The company operates the world's only commercial supersonic fleet and raised $40 million through its IPO, but financial data shows it has had no operating revenue in the past three years.Alpha SummitClocktower's Kevin Wang: The end of the old order and global asset rebalancing under the "big bear market" of the dollar. Kevin Wang pointed out that the new version of the US National Security Strategy marks the end of the old order, which will trigger a global asset reallocation. He believes the dollar has entered its largest bear market in history, with a potential depreciation of nearly 40% over the next 5-8 years, forcing investors to withdraw from dollar assets. In this context, severely underweighted Chinese assets may become the biggest "short squeeze" opportunity, while the bull market in gold is not over, and silver has even greater potential. Caution is needed in 2026 regarding the risk of a shift in Federal Reserve policy amid recurring inflation, as the US stock market is in the "final stage of the bull market."Clocktower's Kevin Wang: Silver is the highest conviction trade currently; if the Federal Reserve "dares" to cut rates while inflation is high, then silver will reach "heaven". Clocktower's Kevin Wang believes that if the Federal Reserve is forced to cut rates while inflation remains high, it will recreate the "stagflation" scenario of the 1970s, at which point silver prices could soar to "heavenly" heightsHe also made a disruptive prediction: global central banks may have no choice but to include silver in their reserve assets to hedge against fiat currency credit risk.Commodity Roundtable: The logic of "buying the dip" for gold in 2026 remains unchanged, silver is racing ahead of inflation risk, and the biggest risk point next year is in the U.S. market. Chen Dapeng stated that many geopolitical uncertainties around the world have not disappeared, and the logic of buying gold on dips remains unchanged next year; Tian Yaxiong believes that AI investment may continue, inflation may unfold comprehensively, the credit of the U.S. dollar will be damaged, and the dollar index may drop to the 80-70 range, with commodities possibly reacting in advance, and silver is already racing ahead; Xu Tao reminded that the biggest risk point next year is in the U.S. market, and once there is a significant fluctuation, commodities will also adjust significantly, but if there is a "big pit," it may be a better buying opportunity.Huachuang Zhang Yu: 2026 will be the year of awakening for the value of allocation in the Chinese stock market, with midstream manufacturing being the most certain direction. Zhang Yu believes that in 2026, the Chinese capital market is expected to break the stereotype of "fast bulls are common, slow bulls are hard to see," entering a phase of low volatility and high Sharpe ratio for allocation. Supported by the triple logic of improved export competitiveness, the implementation of anti-involution policies, and global technological competition, the independence of midstream manufacturing's prosperity has increased. In terms of major asset allocation, Zhang Yu believes that in 2026, it will be difficult to see a "dual bull" in stocks and bonds, and the core of allocation lies in grasping the asymmetry of stock and bond volatility.Research Report HighlightsSenior Technology Analyst: Nvidia is really cheap. Bernstein's report points out that Nvidia's valuation has fallen to historical lows, with expected price-to-earnings ratios dropping below 25 times, presenting a rare discount compared to the semiconductor industry. Although the stock price has stagnated recently, its earnings continue to be revised upward, and new architectures like Blackwell are poised for takeoff. Analysts believe that now is an excellent buying opportunity, with a target price of $275.Morgan Stanley's Heavyweight Robotics Yearbook: Autonomous driving is on the verge of explosion, and China has taken the lead. Morgan Stanley's report believes that autonomous driving has entered the eve of an explosion, with China occupying 60% of the global L2+ market share due to its advantages in electric vehicle scale and data, leading the way. The U.S. is showing a route dispute between Waymo's hardware redundancy and Tesla's pure vision solution. It is expected that by 2050, the number of autonomous vehicles worldwide will exceed 700 million, fundamentally reshaping transportation.The Cycle of Kondratiev, Moving Towards 1978: Welcoming a historic bull market for commodities and A-shares. Western Securities believes that the current super cycle of commodities led by non-ferrous metals indicates that the U.S. may repeat the "second inflation" of 1978, while China may resemble Japan's recovery after 1978, entering a phase of economic recovery and long-term bull market driven by manufacturing and consumptionThe report suggests seizing this historical opportunity of "ice and fire transformation" and positioning in the pro-cyclical direction, including non-ferrous metals, new consumption (tourism, duty-free, etc.), and high-end manufacturing (new energy, innovative drugs, domestic computing power, etc.).Opportunities in the Metal Industry from the Perspective of Kondratiev Waves: Breaking the Gold Dilemma and Re-evaluating the Value of Black Metals. The Duhui team at Guosheng Securities believes that the Kondratiev cycle determines the historical trend of currency returning from a credit-based system to a metal-based system, highlighting the financial attributes of precious metals like gold; at the same time, the fiscal expansion and consumption recovery during the domestic economic transformation period will enhance the commodity attributes of metals. After a long period of supply clearing, the asset prices in the black metal industry are already in an undervalued range, possessing significant strategic allocation value in resonance with the end of the Kondratiev depression and the recovery of the Chinese economy.Renminbi Appreciation: A Boost from the "Settlement Tide"? The recent rapid appreciation of the Renminbi has been attributed by the market to the "year-end settlement tide," but a report from Shenwan Hongyuan points out that during the fastest appreciation period in October and November, the bank's settlement rate actually decreased, and multiple market indicators did not show characteristics of a settlement tide. The report believes that the early stage of this round of appreciation was mainly guided by the central bank's counter-cyclical adjustment, while recently it has synchronized with the weakening of the US dollar. Although seasonal settlement patterns may still provide support in January, the risk of a US dollar rebound and the central bank's intention to "smooth" the exchange rate may affect the pace of the Renminbi breaking through the "7" level.Domestic MacroEight Departments Jointly Announce: Financial Support Accelerates the Construction of the New Western Land-Sea Corridor! The "Opinions" propose the establishment of a comprehensive financial service platform called "Central Bank Western Land-Sea Intelligent Integration" covering the provinces (regions, municipalities) along the route. It supports ASEAN country investors to invest in Renminbi and reinvest domestically. It encourages the settlement of bulk commodity transactions in Renminbi. It supports border ports in Yunnan, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Tibet, and Xinjiang to carry out cross-border trade agent payment services for border residents, strengthen inter-departmental cooperation, and promote the realization of full-chain information sharing for cross-border trade transactions, settlements, and customs declarations.South Korean Economic Community Prepares to Visit China; Korean Media: Leaders of Samsung, SK, Hyundai, and LG May All Participate. According to reports, the leaders of South Korea's four major groups are likely to visit China early next year as members of an economic delegation. During the visit, the South Korean delegation will participate in the Korea-China Business Forum, sign economic cooperation memorandums of understanding, and hold one-on-one business negotiations. "Artificial intelligence (AI) and automobiles will be the two key areas of focus for the South Korean economic delegation seeking cooperation breakthroughs."Domestic CompaniesAcquiring Top Copper-Gold Mine in South America! Jiangxi Copper to Acquire SolGold for Over $1.1 Billion. Jiangxi Copper has made three offers in the past month, with the final acquisition price representing a 43% premium over SolGold's stock price before the first offerThe acquisition will allow Jiangxi Copper to control the Cascabel project, which has large undeveloped copper-gold deposits in South America. SolGold's stock price has risen over 30% since receiving the offer a month ago.Report: CATL's Yichun Jianxiawo lithium mine expected to resume production around the Spring Festival. According to Jiemian News, sources close to CATL revealed that the mining project at the Yifeng County Zhenkouli - Fengxin County Jianxiawo lithium mine, operated by Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd., is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival. In August of this year, CATL disclosed on its investor interaction platform that mining operations at the Yichun Jianxiawo lithium mine were suspended after the mining license expired on August 9.China's Commercial Aerospace Industry Chain Map: Foundation Layer - Network Layer - Frontier Layer. Tianfeng Securities believes that commercial aerospace has entered a new stage of "integrated space and earth, deep space expansion," forming a three-tier industrial structure: the "foundation layer" centered on reusable rockets, led by China and the U.S.; the "network layer" based on low-orbit satellite constellation networking, constructing a new type of information infrastructure with global coverage; and the "frontier layer" aimed at space resource development, with the global deep space economy expected to reach trillions of dollars by 2040, becoming the core engine for cultivating new productive forces.Overseas MacroThe dollar may face its "worst year since 2003," plummeting nearly 10%, as global central bank policy divergence becomes a catalyst for collapse. With rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and political uncertainty, the dollar has faced historic sell-offs, dropping nearly 10% this year, nearing its worst performance in 20 years. In contrast, the European Central Bank and central banks in Australia and New Zealand are leaning hawkish, leading to a broad strengthening of non-U.S. currencies and gold reaching historic highs; the yen has become a new market focus due to intervention risks.Japan's finance minister repeatedly emphasizes "discretion," suggesting U.S. support for yen intervention, not wanting to see a collapse of Japanese bonds? Japan's finance minister has repeatedly emphasized having the "discretion" to intervene in the foreign exchange market, pushing market expectations for intervention to a high point, with USD/JPY 160 seen as a critical defense line. Nomura Securities analysis indicates that this tough rhetoric may suggest tacit approval from the U.S., with the underlying motive possibly being Washington's desire to avoid turmoil in the Japanese bond market that could threaten global financial stability.Japan plans to issue 170 trillion yen in ultra-long-term government bonds next year, the lowest scale in 17 years! In the face of ultra-long-term government bond yields continuing to rise to historical highs, Japan plans to reduce the issuance scale of ultra-long-term government bonds to about 170 trillion yen for the next fiscal year, the lowest level in 17 years. This move aims to alleviate market concerns about excessive debt supply. Meanwhile, the issuance scale of medium- and short-term government bonds will remain unchangedAccording to the media: Netanyahu will visit the U.S. and may discuss plans to strike Iran. According to Global Times, Netanyahu is preparing to meet with Trump at the end of the month, where he may again raise the possibility of launching an attack on Iran. For months, Israeli analysts have warned that Iran is rapidly producing a large number of missiles, suggesting that Israel may need to launch a new round of military strikes.Has Ukraine abandoned its goal of joining NATO? Zelensky has changed his tune. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated on the 24th that Ukraine does not agree to the request in the new 20-point "peace plan" to abandon its goal of joining NATO, and Ukraine will not give up on joining NATO. Just ten days earlier, Zelensky indicated before meeting with the U.S. envoy in Berlin that Ukraine had abandoned its goal of joining NATO in exchange for Western security guarantees as a compromise to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.Russia plans to build a nuclear power station on the moon in the next decade. The Russian space agency announced plans to establish a nuclear power station on the moon by 2036 to power the joint Sino-Russian research station and its own exploration plans. Meanwhile, NASA also plans to deploy a lunar reactor by 2030, with the competition between the two countries essentially revolving around the development of strategic resources such as lunar helium-3 and rare earths.After breaking the 4500 mark, is gold still in the "early stage" of a bull market? Wall Street prophet Yardeni: It is expected to hit $10,000 by 2029! Gold prices have repeatedly hit new highs, rising about 67% this year, outperforming U.S. stocks for the 25th consecutive year. Ed Yardeni predicts that under the framework of the "Roaring 2020s," gold could rise to $10,000 per ounce by 2029, becoming a core asset that combines defense and growth. Although it is relatively expensive compared to cash and bonds, there is still upside potential for stocks, with silver also strengthening in tandem.Overseas CompaniesMusk is about to set a historical record: the first trillionaire, the highest annual "earning" ever. Musk's wealth is expected to surge to around $750 billion by 2025 due to the valuation increase of SpaceX and the victory in the Tesla compensation case, nearing the trillion-dollar mark. If he reaches a trillion, his wealth will account for about 3% of U.S. GDP, far exceeding Rockefeller's approximately 2% share of U.S. GDP at the time, marking a historic leap in the influence of tech giants.Tesla's new trouble: U.S. regulators investigate the emergency door release mechanism of Model 3. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) stated that it is conducting a defect investigation on approximately 179,000 2022 Model 3 vehicles to assess "mechanical emergency door pull handles that are hidden, unmarked, and difficult to locate in emergencies."The allegations stem from a car owner's complaint, who claimed to have been trapped inside a burning Tesla vehicle in 2023 and was ultimately forced to kick out the backseat window to escape.HBM prices rise again, storage in urgent situation! HBM3E prices have increased by about 20%, and the storage market continues to face urgency. Storage giants like Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix are shifting production capacity from consumer electronics to high-profit AI HBM, leading to tight supplies of traditional DRAM and NAND. Industry insiders predict that the memory shortage will last for several years, with capacity sold out by 2026. Consumer devices such as smartphones and PCs are facing pressure for price increases or reduced specifications, with the mid-to-low-end market being the most affected.McKinsey AI application status survey: High penetration rate, but very low monetization rate. The McKinsey report suggests that current AI applications exhibit a "widespread but superficial" characteristic, with high enterprise penetration but few large-scale deployments, and only a small number achieving significant profitability. McKinsey points out that only about 6% of high-performing companies have truly gained profit growth from AI by restructuring business processes and making substantial investments. Investors should focus on these "true players" rather than companies that are merely in pilot stages.Off-balance-sheet financing of $120 billion! Tech giants team up with Wall Street to navigate AI infrastructure, risks shifting towards private credit. To support the costly AI computing race and maintain quality financial metrics, Meta, Oracle, xAI, and others have transferred over $120 billion in data center debt off-balance-sheet through SPVs, attracting Wall Street and private credit inflows. While this move protects ratings, it amplifies risks of opacity and potential contagion concerns, testing the sustainability of the AI boom.Today's News PreviewOn Christmas, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, European stocks, and Korean stocks will be closed, and trading in Brent crude oil futures will be suspended.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will give a speech