The watch market has reversed a three-year decline, with Rolex's series appreciating by 7%. The increase in gold watches lags behind the gold price, and analysts expect it to catch up

As 2025 comes to a close, according to the report from the luxury watch market research organization WatchCharts, after three consecutive years of decline, the second-hand prices of luxury watches finally showed signs of recovery and began to rise in 2025. The overall market index increased by 3.1% in the first 11 months of this year, with Patek Philippe performing the best, rising 7.7% for the year; Rolex also recorded an increase of 3.3%, with one series of watches appreciating by 7%. Watch Market Stabilizes with a Slight Increase of 0.2% Last Month According to the latest data from WatchCharts, the overall market index rose slightly by 0.2% in November; Patek Philippe increased by 1.5% in a single month, with the Aquanaut and Nautilus series rising by 2% and 1% respectively. Audemars Piguet also recorded growth for the second consecutive month, rising by 0.2%, while Rolex experienced a slight decline of 0.2% last month. Notably, among the major brands, no brand saw a price drop exceeding 1% last month, marking the first occurrence of this in nearly four years, indicating that the market is trending towards stability. In summary for 2025, the organization described this year in the watch market as a "chaotic year," influenced by various factors, including a surge in gold prices of over 70%, a weakening dollar, and fluctuations in U.S. import tariffs on Swiss watches. Patek Philippe's Retail Price in the U.S. Rises by 22% This year, U.S. import tariffs on Swiss watches rose from nearly zero to 10% in April, skyrocketed to 39% in August, and finally fell back to 15% in mid-November. WatchCharts stated that the rapid and significant changes in tariffs forced brands and dealers to continuously readjust their pricing and inventory strategies, and consumers had to make purchasing decisions amid uncertainty. Almost all major brands raised their retail prices, some even more than once. Patek Philippe's retail price in the U.S. increased by 22.4% for the year, including a 14.9% increase directly related to the temporary 39% tariff. However, these unstable factors did not affect the recovery of the second-hand market, as prices for several brands began to stabilize in the second half of the year, recovering from three years of steady decline. Among the 25 major brands, six recorded positive growth this year, while all had declined in 2024. Patek Philippe led the major brands with a 7.7% appreciation this year, with the Aquanuat series soaring by 10.7% and the Nautilus series also rising by 6.1%. Notably, the brand's recovery is mainly concentrated in the sports series, while its dress watches such as Complications (-2.4%), Calatrava (-5.6%), and Grand Complications (-6.0%) still performed weakly this year, reflecting a market preference still leaning towards sports styles. Rolex Overall Appreciated by 3.3% This Year As for the Rolex watches collected by many Hong Kong people, the overall second-hand prices have risen by 3.3% this year, with Date (+7.1%), Cellini (+6.1%), and Datejust (+5.2%) being the top three performing series. In contrast, the highly sought-after Sea-Dweller and Sky-Dweller series have decreased by 1.2% and 2.7%, respectively. Data from November shows that the Submariner series also fell by 0.9% in a single month. The research agency indicates that Rolex's market recovery is healthier than that of Patek Philippe, as the recovery is not limited to the sports watch series. Other brands performing well include Grand Seiko (+4.2%), Tudor (+3.4%), Cartier (+2.6%), and Omega (+1.8%). Gold Watch Prices Do Not Reflect Gold Price Increases In 2025, gold prices soared by over 70%, but the second-hand prices of gold watches have lagged far behind the appreciation of gold itself. Taking the Rolex Day-Date market index as an example, it has only increased by 5.7% over the past year. For instance, the Rolex Day-Date 40 (Ref. 228238) has seen a price increase of about $7,000 over the past year, and none of the 15 most frequently traded Day-Date models appreciated by more than $5,000 during the same period. WatchCharts reports that the melt value of certain gold watches currently accounts for more than half of their second-hand market prices, providing unique opportunities for long-term investors. In particular, neo-classical Rolex gold watches may represent one of the most attractive investment opportunities in the current market, as their prices have not yet fully reflected the surge in gold prices