Bitcoin’s Santa rally is dead – But 2026 could have something better in store

The festive season usually brings hopes of a “Santa Rally,” but in 2025, Bitcoin holders are seeing warning signs instead of excitement.Bitcoin is struggling near $87,440 with only a small 0.33% move upward, and the market looks shaky.Analysts are predicting the Bitcoin bottomThis weakness has sparked “fractal fever” online. Many analysts say Bitcoin’s current pattern looks almost identical to the 2021 bull run top.Back then, Bitcoin [BTC] hit $51,700 on 24th December before crashing 34% in just one month. If the same pattern repeats, Bitcoin could face a rough January.A popular analysis on X claimed that using the 2021 sell-off pace today pointed to a possible drop toward $70,000.Source: XWith bearish traders watching that level closely, the real question for 2026 is no longer when Bitcoin will reach six figures, but whether this correction could turn into a much longer downturn.Remarking on the same, another X user added,“I’m normally not a huge fan of fractals, but the current level and price action make it plausible that something like this could happen.”Source: XKaleo also expressed a similar sentiment when he said,“I still believe the market is in a similar place to where it was in the Fall of 2020.”Is the Bitcoin supercycle around the corner?Bitcoin has now entered what analysts call a “mini-Bart” pattern, where it gives back almost all of its recent gains and settles into a lower range.After losing an important support level, the market has slipped into a slow, quiet consolidation phase that feels dull to most traders.But quiet periods like this are often the buildup to major moves. Instead of another long bear market, the current structure points toward a possible “Supercycle.”If Bitcoin breaks to new all-time highs in 2026, it could spark longer rallies, real altcoin seasons, and major activity driven by mainstream crypto apps.Even though a serious bear market will eventually follow, the biggest opportunities are forming now, during this slow, ignored phase.How does 2026 Q1 look for Bitcoin?Recent analysis from AMBCrypto also pointed out that Bitcoin is still holding support between its 50-week and 100-week moving averages, near $84,000–$85,000.Analyst Beimnet Abebe even sees sub-$80,000 as a strong buying zone. But while price finds stability, Bitcoin is facing a cultural slowdown.Social interest is fading, and rising institutional control makes many wonder whether Bitcoin is drifting away from its original, decentralized identity.ETFs help support the price, but they also reduce the explosive rallies people expect.CryptoQuant data shows the True MVRV only reached 2.17 in 2024, much lower than in past cycles. This suggests a more mature market where smart money takes profits early, reducing dramatic swings.So as 2026 approaches, investors must face a new reality: Bitcoin may be safer and more predictable, but that stability comes at the cost of the wild energy that once defined it.Final ThoughtsA drop toward $70,000 is no longer an extreme scenario but a realistic extension of current momentum and market psychology.Despite stagnation, the underlying setup points toward a possible supercycle, where 2026 becomes the true breakout year.