Over 13,400 HDB flats to reach MOP in 2026; analysts say supply could moderate resale price growth

The facade of Punggol Northshore Residences II. Punggol is projected to have the largest supply of 3,222 MOP flats across five projects in 2026.SINGAPORE – Some 13,480 Housing Board flats are expected to reach their minimum occupation period (MOP) in 2026, the bulk of which are in Punggol, Queenstown, and Tampines.This influx is nearly double the 6,970 units that hit their five-year MOP in 2025, and could moderate resale price growth by addressing the demand for housing, said property analysts.These flats are spread across 22 projects in 14 towns, they added.According to analysts’ data, Punggol is projected to have the largest supply of 3,222 MOP flats across five projects – most of which are in the Punggol Northshore neighbourhood. This is followed by Queenstown with 2,405 units in Dawson.In Tampines, the majority of the 2,133 MOP units are located in Tampines North, while Toa Payoh is expected to have 1,594 MOP flats in the new Bidadari estate.Resale flats in Dawson and Bidadari are frequently among million-dollar flat transactions.Those in the Dawson area have set some of the highest prices to date.Of the flats set to hit their MOP in 2026, 5,909 are four-room flats and 2,711 are five-room units. Another 2,299 are two-room flats and 2,561 are three-room units.This supply, alongside a steady stream of Build-To-Order (BTO) flats, Sale of Balance Flats and private homes, could address the demand for housing, said Ms Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group.With more sellers expected to list their flats for sale once they hit MOP, HDB resale prices are likely to face “some downward pressure... which will help to mitigate a significant surge in prices”, she said.ERA Singapore key executive officer Eugene Lim believes this effect could be especially evident in highly sought-after areas such as Bidadari and Dawson, where large numbers of flats will reach their MOP.Of the 6,974 flats that reached their MOP in 2025, three out of 10 were in popular, centrally located areas such as Toa Payoh and Queenstown, where Bidadari and Dawson are located, respectively.As these areas tend to command higher resale prices, this led to 638 four-room flats transacting for at least $1 million each in the two estates, and six three-room flats surpassing $900,000 as at Dec 26, he noted.In June, a five-room, 1,313 sq ft loft unit at SkyTerrace @ Dawson changed hands at $1.659 million, making it the most expensive HDB resale transaction in 2025 to date.And in April, a 710 sq ft three-room flat in SkyParc @ Dawson recorded the highest resale price for such units to date at $935,000.Mr Lim said: “The 2026 supply of MOP flats is likely to lead to prices growing at an overall slower rate with the larger supply, despite demand holding firm.”However, Ms Sun expects that prices could remain buoyant for five-room flats in mature estates such as Queenstown, Toa Payoh, Tampines and Bedok, as larger, newer flats in these areas are relatively rare.Mr Luqman Hakim, chief data and analytics officer at real estate portal 99.co, added that prices could stabilise in heartland estates such as Tampines, Bedok, Bukit Batok and Sengkang, where many flats expected to hit their MOP, are situated.While these areas may not be centrally located, they appeal to families due to their access to schools, neighbourhood malls and MRT stations, he said.“They offer good livability and value, and help meet demand for newer flats within their respective towns,” he added.A report by OrangeTee in November said the supply of MOP flats is expected to grow to 18,939 units in 2027 and 21,393 units in 2028.In all, more than 53,000 flats are projected to obtain their MOP from 2026 to 2028, surpassing the estimated 34,000 units that reached their MOP between 2023 and 2025.National Development Minister Chee Hong Tat said in June that resale prices are expected to moderate in the years ahead as batches of BTO flats affected by the Covid-19 pandemic reach their MOP.When the resale market has stabilised and the supply of resale flats increased, the authorities could consider relaxing the 15-month wait-out period for private property downgraders looking to buy a resale flat, said Mr Chee.Source: The Straits Times © SPH Media Limited. Permission required for reproductionDiscover how to enjoy other premium articles here