Guotai Junan Securities initiates coverage on KEYMED BIO with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 83.29 yuan

Guojin Securities published a report, initiating coverage on KEYMED BIO-B (02162.HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 83.29. The firm predicts that the company will achieve operating revenues of RMB 661 million, 1.255 billion, and 2.064 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 54%, 90%, and 65%, respectively. During this period, it is expected to incur losses of RMB 513 million, RMB 297 million, and turn a profit of RMB 201 million, corresponding to a loss per share of RMB 1.72, a loss per share of RMB 0.99, and earnings per share of RMB 0.67.

The report indicates that the company has a deep layout in differentiated self-immune chronic diseases and oncology tracks, with numerous pipelines under research. The core product, Suptavumab, has been approved for market launch, and CM512 (TSLP/IL-13 dual antibody) is currently expanding into multiple Phase II clinical trials. The authorized CMG901 from AZ is expected to submit an NDA in the U.S. in 2026. The early research layout includes multiple technology platforms, and the pipeline is expected to advance gradually, with ample backup strength. Suptavumab, as the first domestically produced IL-4R monoclonal antibody, has a clear first-mover advantage and is expected to see rapid volume growth after the implementation of medical insurance in 2026. The IL-4R monoclonal antibody can target various type II inflammatory diseases such as atopic dermatitis (AD) and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP). Currently, only two IL-4R monoclonal antibodies have been approved globally, with Sanofi's Dupilumab rapidly gaining market share since its launch in 2017 and continuously expanding new indications, with global sales expected to exceed USD 14 billion in 2024.

The report states that Suptavumab, as the second IL-4R monoclonal antibody globally and the first in China, has a clear first-mover advantage and shows better efficacy compared to Dupilumab in non-head-to-head comparisons. It has already been approved for three indications (AD, CRSwNP, allergic rhinitis SAR, with the latter two being exclusive indications). Suptavumab has been included in the national medical insurance catalog for December 2025, with implementation expected in early 2026, and is anticipated to see rapid volume growth after entering medical insurance. Since its launch in September 2024, sales for the first half of 2024 and 2025 are expected to be RMB 36 million and RMB 169 million, respectively, with projected sales for 2025 to 2027 expected to reach RMB 331 million, RMB 905 million, and RMB 1.627 billion, respectively