Deliberately suppressed before the end of the period, a clear direction is expected only after the New Year's holiday | Gu Tianhou

On December 30th, the weather was generally clear, with a cool morning and low visibility in some areas, becoming dry and warm during the day. On Monday, U.S. stocks trended downward, with the Dow opening down 74 points and continuing to decline, at one point dropping as much as 320 points, closing down slightly at 249 points or 0.51%, at 48,461; the S&P 500 fell 24 points or 0.35%, closing at 6,905; the Nasdaq dropped 118 points or 0.5%, closing at 23,474. Among major stocks, Nvidia closed down 1.2%; Palantir fell 2.4%; Tesla dropped 3.3%. Goldman Sachs fell 1.6%, making it the largest decliner among Dow components, while American Express and JP Morgan both fell over 1%. Precious metal prices surged before rapidly declining, with spot gold prices rising to $4,549.64 before turning down, falling 5.1%, plummeting from $4,500 to around $4,300; silver prices also saw a cliff-like retreat from highs, with spot silver prices first breaking above $80, peaking at $84.0075 before sharply declining, dropping 11.01% to a low of $70.543; silver mining stocks Coeur and Hecla fell 4.4% and 4.9%, respectively. AI Bubble Remains the Most Concerned Issue for Investors The MSCI All Country World Index rose 1.4% last week to a record high, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 22%, marking three consecutive years of growth and the largest increase since 2019. Analysts at Aletheia Capital believe that the stock market party will continue until 2026, as the U.S. is expected to further cut interest rates, the global economy remains strong, and the market has already priced in the worst-case scenario of tariff threats. The Chief Investment Officer at Moneyfarm believes that the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble remains the most concerning issue for investors next year, as the current scale of investment and pace of innovation cannot ignore the impact of AI on the market and the real economy. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its December meeting this week, with U.S. 10-year Treasury yields falling by 3 basis points to 4.101%, while the more interest rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yields dropped by 2.6 basis points to 3.457%. The foreign exchange market was quiet, with the U.S. dollar index rising by 0.16% to 98.18; the yen rose by as much as 0.42% to 155.92 against the dollar. The summary of this month's Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting indicated that some officials pointed out that the local real interest rates are the lowest in the world, and considering the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on prices, adjusting the degree of monetary easing is appropriate, which may signal further interest rate hikes in the future. Although Bitcoin briefly rose above $90,000, gaining 3.18%, it later evaporated all its gains. Hong Kong Stocks Expire Today, Half-Day Market Tomorrow As for Hong Kong stocks, they rose then fell yesterday, with the Hang Seng Index opening up 109 points, and the gain once expanding to 264 points, peaking at 26,082, but fell in the afternoon, closing down 183 points at 25,635; the turnover rose to HKD 224.5 billion, recovering after the long holiday, but the turnover in a declining market reflects that some funds rushed to exit before year-end accounting, selling off to cash out The night session continued to be soft, and with the U.S. stock market weakening, the night session and ADR fell by several dozen points. This morning, the black futures hovered around the 25,600 level, and it is expected that the market will open slightly lower or flat this morning. Due to today's futures settlement and tomorrow being a half-day trading session, trading is expected to become quieter over the next two days. The market will continue to oscillate between several moving averages, with attention on the 10-day moving average around the 25,600 level. If it falls below this, it will seek support at the 30-week moving average around the 25,400-25,450 level. As for the upper side, it has yet to stabilize above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, which are at the 25,900-25,950 level. To reverse the recent weakness, it must stabilize above these two lines and return above the 26,000 level for Hong Kong stocks to have the conditions to break upward again. It is estimated that the market will fluctuate between the 25,400-25,900 level over the next two days, with a clearer direction expected after the New Year's holiday. Gu Tianhou