By William Gavin
In a first for the company, Tesla published a consensus of 20 analyst deliveries estimates. It shows a big drop.
Tesla is expected to sell 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, which is fewer than the 1.79 million it sold in 2024 or they 1.8 million it sold in 2023.
Shares of Tesla were in danger of their longing losing streak in nearly six months, as the elective vehicle giant effectively told investors to expect gloomy fourth-quarter deliveries as it heads toward another annual sales decline.
The company (TSLA) published late-Monday a delivery consensus of sell-side analyst expectations that calls for 422,850 units for the December quarter, down 15% from a year earlier. That's more pessimistic than estimates compiled by FactSet, which expects 447,000 units sold, or the Bloomberg-compiled average of about 445,000 deliveries.
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Compiling and distributing analyst estimates isn't unusual for Tesla, although publishing those figures to its website is a first for the Austin, Texas-based company. According to its head of investor relations, Travis Axelrod, the change was requested by investors.
Tesla's stock slipped 0.3% in recent morning trading Tuesday. That puts it on track for a fifth straight loss, which would be the longest such streak since the six-session stretch that ended July 1. The stock has climbed 13.5% in 2025, but has pulled back 6.4% since closing at a record $489.88 on Dec. 16.
Tesla is set to record its second straight annual sales decline, according to the company-compiled consensus. The carmaker is set to report deliveries of about 1.6 million vehicles, a more than 8% drop compared with a year earlier.
Sales were expected to slow in the December quarter after Tesla delivered more than 497,000 units in the prior three-month period, which beat even the most optimistic expectations. It had benefited from consumers who pulled ahead their plans to buy an EV before key tax credits expired at the end of September.
Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, estimates that 55,000 sales may have been pulled forward to the third quarter. His estimate for Tesla's December quarter sales, which was not cited by Tesla's consensus, stands at 415,000 units.
The company is also still dealing with flagging sales in Europe, where deliveries have fallen by almost 39% as of the end of November. Deliveries in China dropped by more than 8% through November, as local rivals like BYD (BYDDY) (CN:002594) and Xiaomi (HK:1810) continue to give it tough competition.
Read More: Tesla's EV sales keep falling, but Wall Street stays focused on robotaxis
-William Gavin
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-30-25 1007ET

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<p>Tesla has issued a pessimistic forecast for fourth-quarter sales, expecting to deliver 422,850 vehicles, a 15% decline from last year. This marks the company's second consecutive annual sales drop, with total deliveries projected at 1.6 million for 2025. The stock has fallen 0.3%, potentially facing a fifth straight loss. Tesla's sales are also struggling in Europe and China due to increased competition. The company published analyst estimates on its website for the first time, responding to investor requests.</p>

- Tesla reported a consensus of 20 analyst estimates forecasting a decline in vehicle deliveries to 1.64 million in 2025, down from 1.79 million in 2024.  
- The company expects to sell 422,850 vehicles in the fourth quarter, a 15% decrease from the previous year, prompting concerns about its stock performance.  
- Tesla is facing challenges with sales in both Europe and China, as competition intensifies and deliveries continue to decline.

Tesla posts a pessimistic forecast for fourth-quarter sales