In "Major Banks," China International Capital Corporation predicts that domestic demand for automobiles in mainland China will face challenges this year, while overseas sales will grow steadily. It is recommended to focus on intelligent driving, humanoid robots, and liquid cooling for data centers

CICC published a report stating that looking ahead to 2026, the domestic automotive industry in mainland China will face certain challenges in domestic demand under the continuation of policies, while overseas sales are expected to grow steadily. In terms of investment strategy, components are preferred over complete vehicles, with a focus on opportunities for profit and valuation growth brought by AI-related layouts in robotics, intelligent driving, and data center liquid cooling.

In the passenger vehicle sector, the bank indicated that the two new policies provide a bottom line, but domestic demand still faces certain challenges. Current domestic sales have gradually surpassed the previous high point of 2017. Looking ahead to 2026, the bank believes that the vehicle replacement policy will still provide some support, but the challenges for sales growth are increasing, necessitating attention to opportunities arising from market differentiation, globalization, and intelligence. Technological innovation on the supply side and model iterations will drive an increase in penetration rates, supporting new energy vehicles to maintain double-digit growth. The bank is more optimistic about the resilient demand in the mid-to-high-end new energy market, focusing on tactical adjustments of leading companies and opportunities for traditional brands to catch up in new energy.

In the commercial vehicle sector, the bank pointed out that the sea opens up growth space, with a focus on the trend of electric intelligence. The bank believes that the scrapping and updating policy for commercial vehicles is expected to continue in 2026, providing certain support for domestic demand. It is optimistic about strong demand in the Asia-Pacific, Africa, and Latin America regions supporting heavy truck exports, while the increase in new energy penetration rates in Europe supports the prosperity of bus exports. Additionally, the bank predicts that the penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks in domestic sales will reach about 35% by 2026; L2+ level assisted driving heavy trucks are expected to achieve a breakthrough from 0 to 1 in 2025, with a penetration rate potentially reaching single digits in 2026. Leading commercial vehicle companies have a high willingness and ability to distribute dividends, making them more defensive in Q1 2026.

In terms of components, the AI sector has a multi-dimensional layout, with growth potential and valuation upgrades. In 2025, China's automotive components will face certain pressure transmission from downstream customers. The bank believes that the growth potential of the industry chain in 2026 may shift from internal driving to external expansion. It is recommended to focus on the growth drivers and valuation increases that will gradually begin to be released in AI-related sectors in 2026: the integration of AI technology with the automotive industry and high-end manufacturing is accelerating, with three high-prosperity sectors—intelligent driving (L2+ penetration continues to rise, L3 mass production landing), humanoid robots (T mass production begins, multiple companies accelerate progress), and data center liquid cooling (explosive demand for computing power, broad space for domestic substitution)—providing core pathways for component companies to break traditional business boundaries and open up growth ceilings. It is also recommended to continue to pay attention to relevant targets for components going overseas