UBS: December Macau gaming revenue slightly below expectations, expects demand to remain resilient in 2026

The UBS research report indicates that official data from Macau shows that the total gaming revenue in December 2025 is approximately MOP 20.9 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% and a slight month-on-month decline of 1%. The average daily gaming revenue is about MOP 674 million, down 4% month-on-month, which is lower than the market expectation of MOP 693 million.

The data reflects that the average daily revenue for the last 10 days of December slowed to MOP 624 million, lower than the average of MOP 697 million for the first 21 days, possibly due to some gamblers postponing their trips to the long weekend in early 2026, as well as fluctuations in the win rate of VIP rooms. Channel data from the bank shows that the win rate in December for VIP rooms was below 3%, significantly lower than the 3.5% in the first half of 2025, and the 4.2% in October and November. The total gaming revenue for Macau for the year accumulated to MOP 247 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9%.

Looking ahead to 2026, the bank maintains a constructive view on the Macau gaming industry, expecting demand to remain resilient, supported by upgrades in tourism products, increased marketing activities, and a more diversified customer base. These factors are expected to continue driving growth, especially in the high-end customer segment.

Within the sector, the bank is more optimistic about Galaxy Entertainment (00027.HK) and Wynn Macau (01128.HK), with target prices of HKD 46.9 and HKD 8.9, respectively, and has given a "Buy" rating