JP Morgan expects Macau's gaming revenue to rise by 5% to 6% in 2026, with profit growth likely to exceed revenue growth

JP Morgan's research report indicates that Macau's total gaming revenue is expected to grow by 15% year-on-year to MOP 20.9 billion by December 2025, recovering to 91% of pre-pandemic levels; this figure is slightly lower than the market expectation of 18%, mainly due to the market gradually raising expectations in the past, with the original expectation being 15%.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, total gaming revenue is expected to grow by 15% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter to MOP 66.1 billion, reaching a six-year high, significantly exceeding the bank's and market's expectation of a 9% year-on-year growth. For the entire year of 2025, total gaming revenue is expected to grow by 9% year-on-year to MOP 247.4 billion, higher than the bank's expectation of 5%.

Looking ahead to 2026, the bank maintains its expectation that Macau's total gaming revenue will grow by 5% to 6%, driven by a projected growth of 7% to 8% in mass market and slot machine revenue, while VIP room revenue is expected to decline by 5%. More importantly, the bank expects industry profits to grow by 6% to 7% year-on-year, finally expected to surpass revenue growth.

In terms of stocks, the bank continues to be optimistic about Sands China (01928.HK) in the short term, while in the long term, it prefers Galaxy Entertainment (00027.HK), assigning target prices of HKD 24.5 and HKD 50, respectively, both with a "Buy" rating