<div id="readability-page-1"><p>Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.</p>    <p>Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website. </p>    <h2><strong>Normalized December Deliveries<br/></strong></h2>    <p>Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.</p>    <p><em>“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.</em></p>    <p><em><em>“</em>For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.</em>“</p>    <figure><div> <blockquote><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Looking closer at $TSLA deliveries, the numbers are better than they first appear.https://t.co/3Z44JhsAk3</p>— Gene Munster (@munster_gene) January 2, 2026</blockquote> </div></figure>    <h2><strong>Tesla’s United States market share</strong></h2>    <p>Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States. </p>    <p><em>“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter.  For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.</em></p>    <p><em>“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.</em>“</p> <p>The post Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst appeared first on TESLARATI.</p></div>

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<p>Tesla's Q4 2025 delivery numbers, reported at 418k vehicles, slightly missed expectations but are better than they seem, according to analyst Gene Munster. He attributes the reported 16% year-over-year decline to the timing of tax credit expirations, which pulled forward demand. Munster estimates that without this pull-forward, December deliveries would have been around 470k. Additionally, he notes a potential improvement in Tesla's U.S. market share, rising to approximately 65% in the first two months of the quarter, despite overall EV sales declining.</p>

- Gene Munster, a longtime Tesla analyst, suggests that Tesla's Q4 2025 delivery figures are more favorable than they appear, with 418k vehicles delivered, slightly below expectations.  
- The reported year-over-year decline is mainly due to the timing of a tax credit expiration that pulled demand forward by approximately 55k units, indicating that deliveries could have been around 470k without this effect.  
- Additionally, Munster notes a potential improvement in Tesla's U.S. EV market share, which may have risen to roughly 65% in the early quarter, contrasting with a decline in overall EV sales.