Citi: Domestic travel performance during the New Year's holiday was stable, and cross-border tourism data performed well

Citi released a report indicating that the Ministry of Culture and Tourism's report shows that during the three-day holiday for New Year's Day in 2026, domestic tourism will reach 142 million trips and generate revenue of 84.79 billion RMB (the same below), representing a compound annual growth rate of 2.6% and 3.1% respectively compared to the three-day holiday in 2024 (the New Year's Day in 2025 is only a one-day holiday); per capita consumption recorded 597 RMB, a decrease of 1% compared to the 2024 level.

The National Immigration Administration's report shows that the average daily inbound and outbound trips during the New Year's holiday reached 2.2 million, an annual increase of 28.6%, approximately 28% higher than the level in 2019, with outbound trips by mainland residents increasing by 39.1% year-on-year.

Citi believes that domestic travel performance during the New Year's Day in 2026 will be stable, but cross-border tourism will show robust performance. However, the bank considers the upcoming Spring Festival to be more important and expects a stronger performance, as the Spring Festival holiday in 2026 will last for 9 days, one day longer than in 2025. It maintains a "Buy" rating on Trip.com (09961.HK) and TONGCHENGTRAVEL (00780.HK)