As Tesla Inc.’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares continue to soar, former fund manager George Noble says that its valuations are fundamentally disconnected from reality, even after considering its ambitious robotaxis and Optimus humanoid robots.



<h2>Tesla Shares Significantly Overvalued</h2>



Noble, who ran Fidelity’s Overseas Fund, outlined Tesla’s “sum of the parts valuation,” considering its various products and segments, before comparing each of them with the valuations of peers and competitors, on Sunday, in a post on X.



Starting with robotics, Noble compared Tesla's Optimus project with established and emerging competitors. “Boston Dynamics is estimated to be worth $5B. Figure AI recently raised money at a valuation of $39B,” he said, while adding that “both are far ahead of $TSLA in the development of robots.”



See Also: Tesla’s European Slump Worsens Despite Cheaper Models



Even when “generously imputing the Figure AI valuation to Optimus,” Noble said that would translate into $12 per share for Tesla.



Moving on to the company’s robotaxis business, he pointed to the projected valuation for Alphabet Inc.’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Waymo, which he said is “rumored to be going public at a $100B valuation,” adding that assigning a similar valuation to Tesla's robotaxis business would imply “a value of $30 per $TSLA share.”



The company's core automotive business, he said, is already in decline, which, going by “comparables,” is worth $60 billion, or $18 per share, and finally, the energy business, according to Noble, would be worth an additional $20 per share.



All in, Noble said the entire company adds up to just “a total valuation of $80 per $TSLA share,” which stands in stark contrast to its current $438.07 per share.



While acknowledging the rough nature of his estimations, Noble said that his “back-of-the-envelope calculation is far more realistic” than those cited by the company’s bulls, who he said “worship at the altar of price.”



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<blockquote>About that $TSLA sum of the parts valuation… Boston Dynamics is estimated to be worth $5B. Figure AI recently raised money at a valuation of $39B. Both are far ahead of $TSLA in the development of robots. Generously imputing the Figure AI valuation to Optimus would imply a… https://t.co/d1mkIMuPzC— George Noble (@gnoble79) January 4, 2026</blockquote>
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<h2>Tesla Loses EV Crown Despite Being ‘Ridiculously Overvalued’</h2>



Last week, Tesla lost its crown as the world’s top electric vehicle maker to Chinese automotive giant BYD Co. Ltd. (OTC:BYDDF), as the company reported its second consecutive year of falling sales. 



Prominent investor Michael Burry echoed similar concerns regarding the company last week, calling it “ridiculously overvalued,” while citing significant declines in its fourth-quarter vehicle sales projections. 



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<blockquote>Tesla is ridiculously overvalued. pic.twitter.com/GIEmC8744Z— Cassandra Unchained (@michaeljburry) December 30, 2025</blockquote>
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Tesla shares were down 2.59% on Friday, closing at $438.07, and are up 1.66% overnight. The stock trades at an expensive 196 times forward earnings, relative to the industry average of 17.47.



The stock scores high on Momentum and Quality in Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings, with a favorable price trend in the short, medium and long terms. Click here for deeper insights into the stock, its peers and competitors.



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Read More: 



<ul>
<li>Musk Says Tesla Model Y Is World’s Bestselling Vehicle Again In 2025, But Grok Disagrees</li>
</ul>



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Former fund manager George Noble claims Tesla's stock is significantly overvalued, estimating its fair value at $80 per share, compared to its current price of $438.07. He analyzed Tesla's various segments, including robotics and robotaxis, and found their valuations lag behind competitors. Noble's calculations suggest that Tesla's core automotive business is in decline, contributing to a lower overall valuation. This follows similar concerns from investor Michael Burry, who labeled Tesla as "ridiculously overvalued" amid declining sales.

- Former fund manager George Noble argues that Tesla's current share price of $438.07 is significantly overvalued, estimating a realistic valuation of only $80 per share based on its various business segments.  
- Noble's analysis compares Tesla's robotics and robotaxis projects with competitors, concluding that despite ambitious prospects, the company's fundamental automotive business is declining and worth only $60 billion.  
- Prominent investor Michael Burry supports this viewpoint, highlighting Tesla's financial challenges as it faces competition from BYD, causing concerns over its inflated valuation.

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After Michael Burry, This Top Fund Manager Says Tesla Stock Is At Least 5X Overpriced, Pegs Fair Value At $80 A Share