Where Swiss Asset Managers See Further Potential in 2026

Swiss asset managers see the greatest opportunities in the SIP, according to the Aquila Asset Manager Index (AVI) for the fourth quarter of 2025, published in early January. Asked which market would offer the most attractive risk-return profile in 2026, 42 percent cited the Swiss equity index, followed by emerging markets (MSCI EM ex China, 18 percent) and the US blue-chip index S&P 500 (14 percent). European equities (MSCI EMU, 7 percent), technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100 and MSCI China (9 percent each) ranked significantly lower. The UK FTSE 100 and Japan’s Nikkei 225 were not mentioned at all. Concerns about an AI-driven equity market bubble are clearly not widespread among asset managers. Only 13 percent of respondents expect a «burst» in valuations. By contrast, 61 percent describe themselves as «semi-optimists», identifying some degree of overvaluation and expecting a mild cooling—but no crash. Meanwhile, 26 percent continue to see AI as a growth driver and believe market highs have not yet been reached. When asked which assets they would use to diversify away AI-related risk, around 66% cited gold. Swiss real estate (36 percent), cash (32 percent), infrastructure/energy (29 percent) and commodities (26 percent) were also widely viewed as hedging instruments. Looking ahead, expectations for the SMI over a 12-month horizon are more optimistic than in the previous survey. A rise is now expected by 64 percent, compared with 55 percent. Stable levels are anticipated by 28 percent, while only 8 percent expect declining prices. For 10-year Swiss government bonds, the majority (64 percent) expects interest rates to remain unchanged. «Following the recent weakness in November, we slightly increased our equity exposure and selectively took advantage of attractive investment opportunities,» comments Manuela Rupf, founder and partner at Alpique Swiss Partners. «We remain optimistic and are focusing primarily on high-quality companies. Bull markets rarely end during phases of interest rate cuts.» Broad diversification and a disciplined investment approach remain essential, she adds. «On the client side, we are seeing increased demand for commodity exposure—silver in particular still appears attractive despite the strong price move.» Gold as a core building block Sam Harsch, chairman of the board and partner at Gotthard Partners, is also focused on precious metals. «Gold has been a central building block of our strategic asset allocation for many years. The deliberate overweighting at the expense of bonds is not based on short-term market expectations, but on the assessment that, in an environment of rising government debt, geopolitical fragmentation and increasing monetary policy uncertainty, the precious metal continues to fulfill its role as a store of value and a stabilizing asset.» In addition, exposure to euro- and dollar-denominated assets has been reduced across mandates for some time. Harsch points to persistently high debt levels, fiscal trade-offs and increasing «monetary policy flexibilisation» in the U.S. and the euro area. «We assume that, alongside the US dollar, the euro will also gradually develop into a soft currency.» According to the survey, asset allocation weightings in equities, liquidity and gold are clearly above those of a traditional balanced portfolio, while bond allocations are below.