Daiwa raised its outlook on the mainland natural gas industry to "neutral," expecting improvements in corporate fundamentals by 2026

Daiwa has upgraded its view on the mainland natural gas industry to "Neutral," as it expects the fundamentals of companies to improve by 2026. The firm anticipates that the sales volume of major natural gas companies in the mainland will see low to mid-single-digit growth compared to last year's low base in 2026.

In terms of gas price differentials (Dollar margin), assuming a mild winter and no significant deterioration in competition, it expects an annual increase of 1 to 2 cents. Regarding connection services, the firm expects the new connection volume of major companies to decline year-on-year by low to mid-double digits, but its impact is gradually weakening. At the same time, the firm expects the dividends of major companies to remain stable or increase slightly year-on-year.

In terms of stocks, the firm prefers high-yield stocks, such as CHINA GAS HOLD (00384.HK) and HK & CHINA GAS (00003.HK), with target prices of HKD 8.3 and HKD 7.7, respectively, both rated "Outperform." Among them, the rating for HK & CHINA GAS has been upgraded from "Hold" to "Outperform," as its EcoCeres business may see a turnaround