Iran's Ayatollah Regime Faces Collapse In 2026? Crypto Punters Boost Odds As Unrest Boils, Trump Issues Warning

Prediction markets have substantially raised the odds of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei losing power this year as the Iranian regime battles a deepening economic crisis and civic unrest. Over $1 Million Bet On Regime Change The odds that Iran’s Supreme Leader is removed from power by the first half of the year rose to 36% on Polymarket, up from 28% the day before and 21% a week ago. The probability of Khamenei losing power by March 31 has risen to 25%, whereas bettors see only a 12% chance of it occurring by the end of the month. Over $1 million has been wagered on the outcome. The market resolves to "Yes" if Khamenei resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position. Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), added a disclaimer to this betting contract, stating, “After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not.” The Economic Crisis Fueling Unrest In Iran The odds come as anti-regime protests intensified in the Middle Eastern nation, driven by growing frustration over the weakening national currency and soaring inflation. At least 36 people have been killed during the last 10 days of protests across Iran, according to Human Rights Activists News Agency, a U.S.-based non-profit organization. Iranian authorities have not yet given a death toll for protesters, but confirmed deaths of security personnel, Reuters reported. Reports also emerged about protesters taking over the cities of Abdanan and Malekshahi in the country’s western province of Ilam. Iranian state media claims that the situation is “completely normalized.” The Iranian Rial has collapsed to record lows, trading at 1.47 million rials to one dollar, in the country’s open market. Last year, the Iranian Parliament sanctioned a monetary reform that will phase out four zeros from the currency President Donald Trump said last week that the U.S. would come to the "rescue" of Iranian protesters if the regime resorts to violence. Iran has warned that any U.S. intervention could lead to “destabilizing the entire region.” Photo Courtesy: Ink Drop on Shutterstock.com