On the eve of the Fed's policy: the $100 billion tariff ruling and the non-farm payroll report

This weekend is destined to be anything but peaceful. The market is holding its breath, awaiting a truly momentous test. From the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs worth hundreds of billions, to the tariffs imposed on metals, and the forced sell-off by passive funds, the market is currently in the eye of multiple storms. The three major events that have erupted in quick succession will profoundly reshape market trends and directly impact the pricing logic of US stocks, US bonds, and precious metals. Additionally, at 21:30 Beijing time on Friday, January 9th, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the December non-farm payroll report. After weeks of data vacuum caused by the government shutdown, this report will become a "reliable reading" for the market to assess the health of the economy, and the most decisive reference before the Federal Reserve's January interest rate meeting, directly influencing its policy choice of "holding steady" or "continuing rate cuts." At this crucial juncture, buckling up and being wary of volatility risks may be the best strategy. Below, we will break down these major changes that are taking place one by one. 01 1000 Companies "Besiege" the White House: Will the $100 Billion in Tariffs Be Refunded? Washington is witnessing an unprecedented legal "siege." According to the latest statistics, over 1,000 companies have officially filed lawsuits attempting to overturn the current tariff policy and demand refunds of tariffs totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. These include well-known listed giants such as Costco and Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. In just the first few days of 2026, dozens of entities joined the battle. The focus of this lawsuit is the upcoming final ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court on the legality of Trump's comprehensive tariff plan. According to CCTV News, the Supreme Court has set this Friday (Eastern Time) as the day to release its opinion. While it has not yet been definitively confirmed whether the tariff case will be included, the market generally expects the ruling to be released as early as this week. What will happen if the court rules the tariffs illegal?Positive for US Stocks: Wells Fargo's chief equity strategist, Ohsung Kwon, estimates that if tariffs are overturned, S&P 500 companies' EBITDA in 2026 could increase by about 2.4% compared to last year. Removing tariffs will directly improve corporate earnings, benefiting the stock market.Negative for US Treasuries: On the other hand, removing tariffs will weaken an important source of government revenue, exacerbating concerns about the federal deficit and potentially triggering a sell-off in US Treasuries.Policy Complications: If tax rebates provide additional economic stimulus, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path will become more complex. Even if the Supreme Court rules it illegal, the specific refund process (involving approximately $133 billion) may still require lower courts to handle, and the White House may invoke other laws to reimpose restrictions, meaning policy uncertainty will persist for a long time. 02 Key Mineral Tariff Countdown: Silver and Platinum Face a "Moment of Terror" In addition to the comprehensive tariff case, the results of the US "Section 232" investigation into key minerals are expected to be released this Saturday (January 10). This decision directly affects the fate of Comex silver and platinum group metals. Citigroup research team has provided a detailed scenario analysis: If tariffs are imposed: The market will have an implementation window of approximately 15 days, triggering a brief "rush to the US" behavior. This will push up US domestic benchmark pricing and futures premiums (EFPs). As of January 7, EFP pricing showed the market expecting a tariff rate of approximately 12.5% for platinum, approximately 7% for palladium, and approximately 5.5% for silver. These implied tariff rates reflect market uncertainty amid high volatility. (Expected tariff rates in EFP pricing) If no tariffs are imposed: Metals will flow from the US to other parts of the world, easing pressure on London spot prices and potentially leading to a price correction. How to analyze specific commodities? Silver (Highly likely no risk): Given the US's heavy reliance on imported silver, Citigroup believes no tariff is the baseline scenario, and even if a tariff is imposed, Canada and Mexico may be exempt. However, in a "no tariff" scenario, silver prices may face temporary downward pressure. Palladium (High risk): Most likely to be subject to tariffs (e.g., 50%). If a tariff is imposed, US domestic import costs will rise sharply, pushing up futures prices. Platinum (Coin toss): Whether a tariff will be imposed is currently extremely uncertain. The investigation results were originally scheduled to be submitted on October 12, 2025, giving President Trump 90 days to act, meaning the deadline is approximately January 10 (this Saturday). However, Citigroup believes that given the large number of commodities involved, President Trump's action may be postponed indefinitely, which would likely lead to continued price increases for silver and platinum group metals during this period. 03 Technical Sell-Off Arrives: A "Bloody Week" of Commodity Index Rebalancing Beyond fundamental news, a "passive storm" in the money market has begun. The highly anticipated Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) annual weight rebalancing began after market close on January 8 and will continue until January 14. To maintain the diversification rule that no single commodity weight should exceed 15%, this adjustment has put significant selling pressure on the precious metals sector. Gold: Its weighting has been reduced from 20.4% to 14.9%, facing selling pressure equivalent to 3% of total open interest. Silver: It faces even greater pressure! Its weighting will drop sharply from 9.6% to 3.94%, with expected selling pressure reaching as high as 9% of total open interest. This "non-fundamental" selling, triggered by index rules, forces speculative funds to exit the market and observe, exacerbating short-term volatility. It's worth noting that the decline in precious metals such as gold and silver occurred after a rare, epic surge. Spot gold saw a cumulative increase of over 70% throughout 2025, while silver's increase once reached approximately 150%, continuously setting new historical highs after entering a period of rapid growth starting December 23rd of last year. Such a massive accumulation of short-term profits makes the market extremely vulnerable to liquidity events. While Goldman Sachs analysts believe that liquidity will be the key factor determining prices as long as the London inventory shortage persists, investors are forced to remain on edge in the short term given the large-scale portfolio rebalancing by passive funds.