Chipotle's High-Protein Push Targets GLP-1 Users, Analysts See Upside

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) shares are trading higher on Friday. The restaurant chain is accelerating its global expansion as it targets long-term growth through new restaurant openings and digital-first formats. Analysts have turned their focus to the company’s international footprint, menu innovation, and long-term unit growth as key drivers of future performance. Analyst’s Take Telsey Advisory Group analyst Sarang Vora initiated coverage on the stock, with a price forecast of $50. Vora said Chipotle can become a “global restaurant brand” as it expands in North America. The analyst also expects faster growth in Europe and international markets. Chipotle operates about 4,000 restaurants, including roughly 115 outside the United States. Those locations include Canada, Europe, and partner-run sites in the Middle East. Vora expects unit growth to stay in the 8% to 10% range over several years. For 2026, Vora expects 350 to 370 openings, or about 9% growth at midpoint. More than 80% of new stores should include Chipotlane drive-throughs for digital orders. Plans include one to two company-owned Europe stores and 10 to 15 partner-run international units. Vora said Chipotle leads the industry in average unit volumes, supported by locations and execution. The analyst noted AUV rose to $3.2 million in 2024 from $2.2 million in 2019. Vora expects AUV to slip to $3.05 million in 2025 amid macro pressure and weak comps. The analyst expects growth to return in 2026 and 2027 as comps turn positive. Vora said the stock’s 32% decline over the past year reflects cyclical pressures. The analyst expects a rebound as comps improve in the second quarter of 2026 and cost pressures ease. Tailwinds Vora also expects modest macro tailwinds from higher tax refunds, lower gas prices, and lower interest rates. He cited initiatives including a high-protein menu, new dips and sides, and three to four LTOs. “We expect the new menu to boost results as the company attracts a growing number of GLP-1 users and benefits from the protein movement,” the analyst added. The analyst expects a loyalty refresh, stronger catering efforts, and higher marketing spend. Vora expects margin recovery late in 2026 and into 2027, despite near-term inflation and tariffs. Risks include prolonged consumer weakness, execution missteps, weak new item demand, and cost pressure. CMG Price Action: Chipotle Mexican Grill shares were up 1.53% at $39.78 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data. Photo via Shutterstock