China’s outbound travel set to soar by 10 million trips in 2026 – but halve in Japan

China’s vast outbound travel market is set for further growth in 2026, boosted by the spread of visa-free policies for Chinese nationals and a stronger yuan. But visits to Japan could plummet by nearly 50 per cent amid a political dispute between Beijing and Tokyo, according to analysts and industry insiders.\nMainland Chinese travellers are expected to take about 165 million to 175 million cross-border trips in 2026, up from an estimated 155 million last year, the travel marketing and technology firm China Trading Desk said on Thursday. That includes visits to Hong Kong, as well as far-flung destinations like Europe and Africa.\nSouth Korea, Vietnam and Thailand – in that order – will be the three most popular destinations for Chinese tourists this year, as each benefits from convenient travel connections with China and has an abundance of popular sightseeing attractions, according to China Trading Desk.\nOther countries are likely to see a bump in arrivals after relaxing visa policies for Chinese nationals. That includes Russia, which allowed China’s tourists to enter visa-free from December.\nTurkey introduced a visa-free policy for Chinese travellers this month, while Cambodia plans to waive visas for arrivals from June to October. Dozens of other countries already let Chinese passport holders stay for short periods without a visa.\nThe spread of visa-free policies is a factor driving the growth in China’s outbound travel market, said James Chin, a professor of Asian studies at the University of Tasmania in Australia, who added that Chinese travel agencies were also “becoming more adventurous”.\nThe recent strengthening of the yuan – which has risen by more than 1 per cent against the US dollar over the past month – could give China’s travel market an extra boost this year by making dollar-reliant countries more affordable for Chinese tourists.\nA stronger yuan is playing a “marginal role” in motivating overseas travel, according to Song Seng Wun, economic adviser at the Singapore-based fintech company SDAX. But other Asian currencies have also gained on the US dollar, which reduces the yuan’s advantage, he added.\nMeanwhile, China’s growing international flight connectivity is motivating more people to travel abroad, said Sienna Parulis-Cook, marketing and communications director at the marketing firm Dragon Trail International. She pointed to the launch of several new routes in recent months, such as Shanghai-Buenos Aires and Beijing-Muscat.\n\n\nChinese tourism to Japan, however, is set to plunge in 2026. A recent survey by China Trading Desk indicated that Japan should expect just 4.8 million to 5.8 million Chinese arrivals this year, down from 9.3 million in 2025.\nChina and Japan have been embroiled in a dispute since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi indicated on November 7 that Tokyo might intervene in the event of an armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait. China warned its citizens not to travel to Japan later that month, citing safety concerns.\nMonthly arrivals of Chinese citizens in Japan fell to 560,000 in November after the dispute erupted, then to 530,000 last month, according to China Trading Desk. The Japan National Tourism Organization had reported 715,700 arrivals from mainland China in October.\nA “sustained ‘avoid Japan’ narrative” is partly driving the fall, leading to a drop in Chinese independent travel to the country, China Trading Desk CEO Subramania Bhatt said.\nAll Nippon Airways, one of Japan’s largest airlines, said corporate travel from Japan to China had remained largely unchanged since November, but that the company was trying to increase business by marketing flights to Chinese expatriates heading home from Japan.\nChina’s travel and tourism sector – which includes both inbound tourism and domestic travel – is also expected to grow strongly over the coming years, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council trade body.\nThe market is set to grow 7 per cent annually over the next decade, contributing US$3.8 trillion to China’s gross domestic product by 2035, the council said in December. By 2031, China is expected to become the world’s largest travel and tourism market, surpassing the US, it added.\n