Morning Trend | SINOFERT breaks below key level, will there be a sudden surge in volume with funds on the sidelines?

On January 12th, SINOFERT (0297.HK) experienced weak fluctuations, with the sector repeatedly declining along with commodity prices. The risk of volatility in bulk commodities has increased, and there are no new positive announcements in the industry, resulting in a calm company dynamic. Funds have continued to slightly reduce positions, with the stock price gradually testing the important support level of HKD 1.45. The technical indicators show a bearish MACD and a downward shift in the lower Bollinger Band, indicating clear downward momentum. The profit margins in the fertilizer industry are being squeezed by commodity prices, and defensive sectors have lost favor, with funds focusing on capacity, exports, and subsidy dynamics. Only with adjustments in exports or stimulus from subsidies could there be a chance for a "sudden surge" opportunity; otherwise, the bottoming process will continue. Recommendation: In the short term, focus on tracking intraday volume and policy changes. If there is a breakdown, be cautious of the risk of following the decline. Any unusual movements during the day should signal a switch, and liquidity management and stop-loss discipline should be taken very seriously