"Big Banks" UBS: AIA's new business value can maintain reasonable and sustainable growth, reiterating a "Buy" rating

UBS published a research report indicating that AIA Group (01299.HK) management attended the bank's Greater China Conference (GCC). The company believes that the group's new business value can maintain a growth rate of about 15% to 17% (mid-teens), which is both reasonable and sustainable. The main driving factors include: high single-digit growth in the number of active agents, continuous improvement in agent productivity, and supplementary upward space from cooperative channels (such as bancassurance and brokerage). The agency channel remains AIA's core distribution method, contributing 74% of the group's VNB in 2024. The company believes that the bancassurance and brokerage channels complement the agent channel well and will not erode agent business. The bank reiterated AIA's "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 88.

In the Chinese market, AIA maintains growth momentum through the "Dynamic Sales Program," a popular product portfolio, and collaborations with mainstream institutions such as China Construction Bank and Bank of China. At the same time, the investment in China Post Life Insurance (holding 24.99%) further strengthens its bancassurance layout and plans to add 1 to 2 provincial licenses each year to expand the market