In the early hours of January 3, 2026, the United States launched airstrikes against Venezuela. Subsequently, U.S. President Trump publicly declared that the U.S. would &#34;take charge of Venezuelan affairs,&#34; with major American oil companies leading the future operations of Venezuela's oil resources.
In recent days, the situation in Iran has been turbulent, and the U.S. has indicated that it is &#34;considering some very tough options&#34; in response to the killing of protesters.
From a political perspective, China's significant investments in oil-rich Venezuela, along with being a major buyer of discounted Iranian crude oil, mean that U.S. actions are expected to impact China's global energy layout. The New York Times analyzed that President Trump's power grab in Venezuela directly strikes at the long-term oil supply sources that China has cultivated through billions of dollars in loans and years of political courting, breaking China's economic dominance throughout Latin America.
From an economic perspective, the actions the U.S. has taken or may take against Venezuela and Iran represent a competition for the C20+ carbon chain.
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The image shows an oil tanker located in the Venezuelan region. (AFP)
<h3>The Importance of Oil Carbon Chain Length</h3>
To understand the meaning of this statement, one must first grasp the nuances of oil, particularly the economic significance of oil molecules with different carbon chain lengths (C-length), and how C-length determines the state of matter and energy density, as well as its impact on various industries.
What we commonly refer to as &#34;oil&#34; is actually a broad concept. A barrel of oil is a mixture composed of thousands of different molecules, each oil source having a unique &#34;fingerprint.&#34; &#34;C-length&#34; refers to the number of carbon atoms connected together in a single molecule. The carbon chain length determines the state of matter (gas, liquid, or solid) and energy density.
Essentially, the C-length of oil encompasses the following grades:
Short-chain (C1-C4): Gases that are easily evaporated
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The U.S. shale gas production generates a large amount of ethane, which can be cracked into ethylene for the production of PVC pipes, shrink films, and sterile medical packaging, among other uses. (Reuters)
For example, C2 ethane can be cracked into ethylene, which is used to manufacture PVC pipes, shrink films, and sterile medical packaging. The United States produces a large amount of ethane from shale gas.
Medium-chain (C5-C12): Thin liquid (gasoline) and easily evaporates
Also known as light oil, it includes naphtha and gasoline, primarily produced from U.S. shale gas, used for personal transportation vehicles such as cars, electric bikes, and light trucks, and can also be used as a diluent for heavy oil. It is also a raw material for plastics.
Long-chain (C13-C25): Oily liquid (diesel/jet fuel), heavy industrial &#34;gold&#34;
Also known as medium to heavy oil, this includes kerosene (jet fuel) and diesel. These petroleum molecules have a high density, capable of holding a large amount of energy, yet remain in a pumpable liquid state, making them an indispensable category of oil for modern industry and transportation. For example, for transoceanic flights, airplanes require C13 carbon chain jet fuel. Additionally, diesel is widely used in agriculture (tractors), logistics (trucks), construction (excavators), and even warfare (tanks).
It is worth mentioning that this is one of the world's scarcest types of oil. In U.S. shale gas, this grade of oil is almost unattainable (mainly C5-C10), while Venezuela and Russia have more of this type of oil.
Ultra-long-chain (C50 to C100+): Solid (marine fuel oil/asphalt)
Referred to as ultra-heavy oil, their molecules are generally solid or semi-solid, primarily used for large marine fuel oils and paving asphalt.
The oil produced in Venezuela's Orinoco region contains rich C50+ chain oil. Many refineries in China also rely on importing this specific C chain length oil to produce the asphalt needed for domestic infrastructure construction.
<h3>The Secrets of Refining</h3>
According to analysis by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group), to run modern economic activities, a country's overall oil demand ratio is generally: about 40% gasoline, 30% diesel, 10% jet fuel, and 20% asphalt, lubricants, and petrochemical raw materials.
However, nature never provides exactly the same grade of oil.
For instance, the U.S. has a large amount of shale gas (mainly C5-C10), and relying solely on it cannot effectively operate industrial economic activities. If one wants to refine them into diesel or jet fuel, the process is difficult and expensive.
<h4>Further Reading</h4>
Trump wants U.S. companies to invest over $100 billion in Venezuelan oil

 U.S. captures Maduro, warns China and Russia, involving oil wars, resource wars, and currency wars


But if the United States has Venezuela's heavy crude oil (C50+), it can heat it in a coker and &#34;chop&#34; it, breaking down the long chains into the most valuable diesel (C16) products.
This is why U.S. coking refineries are a &#34;golden key,&#34; effectively refining Venezuela's Orinoco heavy oil into the highest value raw materials. A barrel of Orinoco heavy oil entering a refinery in Texas produces 80% high-value diesel / jet fuel and 20% solid petroleum coke (petcoke, which can be used as industrial fuel).
In contrast, Russian or Venezuelan refineries, lacking the depth of U.S. &#34;coking&#34; capabilities, cannot crack the heavy fuel oils they produce into diesel domestically and must ship them to &#34;teapot&#34; refineries in Shandong, China, allowing the latter to crack them into diesel and asphalt.
According to Deutsche Welle, China is the largest buyer of Venezuelan oil. Although data from oil price survey agency Argus Media shows that by the end of last year, China's imports accounted for only about 12% of Venezuela's oil exports, over 60% of the exports went to unknown recipients.
In short, by acquiring Venezuela's Orinoco heavy oil, the United States effectively ensures that its refineries have the highest value raw materials while forcing China to operate its &#34;teapot&#34; refineries with inferior substitutes.
<h3>No longer needing to play whack-a-mole globally</h3>
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If the United States activates the &#34;termination switch&#34; and forces Venezuela's American allies to stop transporting asphalt to China, then Iran will become China's main source, and the flow of oil will be completely concentrated in the Strait of Hormuz. (Reuters)
In addition to its refining technology advantages, the United States controls Venezuela's oil resources and also possesses strategic geographical advantages.
Previously, the U.S. was concerned about illegal &#34;dark fleet&#34; tankers transporting oil in the Caribbean, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. If Venezuela stops transporting asphalt to China, Iran will become China's main source of heavy crude oil. The flow of this type of oil is concentrated in the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. Navy no longer needs to play whack-a-mole globally. It can concentrate all interception capabilities (satellite surveillance, naval blockades) on the route to Iran. China's oil energy artery has turned into a single, highly vulnerable vein.
Bloomberg reported on Tuesday (January 13) that &#34;most of Iran's production (about 2 million barrels per day) flows to Chinese refineries, and if a major disruption occurs, these refineries will be forced to seek alternative supplies.&#34;
<h3>China May Face Asphalt Raw Material Shortages</h3>
Furthermore, losing Venezuelan supplies means China may face a structural shortage of road paving materials.
Currently, Venezuela's heavy crude oil variety Merey 16, due to its extremely high asphalt content, is considered a key raw material for China's road construction, alongside Canadian oil sands, both of which are listed as the gold standard for high-capacity asphalt.
With Venezuela under U.S. control and Canada aligning its policies with the U.S., China is left with only Iran as a source of heavy crude oil.
Therefore, if the U.S. takes action against Iranian exports, China will be even less able to obtain the heavy oil needed for specific refining configurations.
China can still rely on Russian heavy crude oil to produce asphalt for road paving, but the asphalt yield from Russian oil production is significantly lower.
Essentially, Venezuelan and Canadian heavy crude oil yields about 60% usable asphalt per barrel, while Iranian and Russian heavy crude oil only produce 20% to 30%. To replace them, China would need to double its import volume, which requires significant investment, but whether Russian production is close to its maximum capacity and can meet China's demand remains uncertain.
Additionally, while China's Bohai Sea and Karamay regions produce heavy crude oil, they have high paraffin content, resulting in lower quality asphalt. China can still use them for road paving, but the roads may crack in two years instead of ten.
Ironically, asphalt is a necessary material for building highways, and China still needs it to establish and maintain its road network. In contrast, the U.S. has lower demand for asphalt because it has an established road network.
The demand for the same barrel of Venezuelan heavy oil sludge is starkly different between the two superpowers, China and the U.S.
<h3>Is the U.S. Also Tightening the Heavy Oil Noose Around China?</h3>
Clearly, just as China's rare earth resources act like the tightening headband on Sun Wukong, leaving the U.S. with no immediate countermeasures, the U.S. now has very tangible advantages over China. It can slowly squeeze China by reducing Merey 16 exports or simply raising prices. China continues to pay high prices for its infrastructure construction.
Overall, in the face of increasingly severe geopolitical risks, China is dealing with more than just fluctuations in oil prices by a few dollars; it is entering an era of energy games characterized by higher risks, higher costs, and greater uncertainty, initiated by the Trump administration in the U.S
In this increasingly zero-sum game, various roles may need to reassess the cards in their hands and devise new strategies

The actions of the United States against Venezuela and Iran have triggered a competition for the C20+ carbon chain length. President Trump has claimed he will dominate Venezuela's oil resources, affecting China's economic position in Latin America. The C-length of oil determines its material state and energy density, impacting various industries. The U.S. strategy may alter the global energy landscape, particularly its influence on China

Carbon chain length lineup: Which one takes the C position in Trump's oil strategy? | Lianhe Zaobao