Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Q4 Preview: Trump Tariff Plan, Factory Expansion Could Overshadow Earnings

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM) shares hit all-time highs on Tuesday and could be volatile later this week as the company reports fourth-quarter financial results Thursday before market open.Here are the earnings estimates and key items to watch ahead of the report.Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Taiwan Semiconductor to report fourth-quarter revenue of $32.63 billion, up from $26.88 billion in last year's fourth quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.The company has beaten analyst revenue estimates for 10 consecutive quarters.Analysts expect the company to report fourth-quarter earnings per share of $2.71, up from $2.24 in last year's fourth quarter.The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in more than 10 straight quarters.Company guidance calls for fourth-quarter revenue in the range of $32.2 billion to $34.4 billion.Key Items to Watch: While an 11th straight double beat could help boost shares of Taiwan Semiconductor, the company has another news item that could overshadow quarterly results.A new report says the company is planning a major expansion of its manufacturing presence in the U.S. The news comes as part of a potential trade deal between the Trump administration and Taiwan.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing could commit to building five additional facilities in Arizona, doubling its presence in the state. Under the deal, President Donald Trump would cut tariffs on Taiwan to 15%.The deal could improve the financial position for Taiwan Semiconductor, which is a major partner of companies like NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), and strengthen the company's relationship with the U.S. government.With a growing portion of the company's revenue coming from U.S. partners, strong relationships with U.S. companies and the government remain a key storyline.News of the company’s potential increased investment in the U.S. could be a key topic for analysts during the earnings call, as executives discuss it alongside the quarterly results.Recently reported monthly and quarterly data from the company show a likely double beat coming Thursday. With the results behind the company, attention will turn to the manufacturing news and future guidance.Growth in AI chip sales from Taiwan Semiconductor’s partners has been strong for the business and for the company's margins. Commentary on demand trends and AI could help power shares higher.TSM Price Action: Taiwan Semiconductor shares are trading flat at $331.98 on Tuesday, versus a 52-week trading range of $134.25 to $336.42. Shares hit new 52-week and all-time highs early in Tuesday's trading session. Shares are now up 64.8% over the last 52 weeks.