HSBC Research estimates that JD.com's revenue and profit will bottom out in the last quarter, reiterating a "Buy" rating and a target price of 144 yuan

HSBC Global Research published a report, expecting that JD.com (09618.HK) will see its revenue and profit growth bottom out in the fourth quarter of 2025. Although the outlook for electronic products and home appliances in 2026 remains challenging, the firm believes that the company's commitment to share buybacks and regular dividends can support its valuation. The bank maintains a "Buy" rating on JD.com, with a target price of HKD 144.

The bank believes that the sales outlook for electronic products and home appliances in 2026 will continue to face challenges, partly due to a high base effect and partly due to the Chinese government's more refined approach to the "trade-in for new" subsidy policy. However, with the announcement of new subsidy policies, it is expected that the year-on-year sales decline will bottom out in the fourth quarter of 2025. The bank anticipates that, with a lower base, growth in electronic products and home appliances will recover to single-digit levels in the second half of 2026, thus raising the 2026 revenue forecast by 1%.

Although a significant improvement in group profit margins is expected in 2026, due to JD.com's retail revenue mix shifting towards fast-moving consumer goods, its margin expansion will be more conservative. Therefore, the bank has lowered its earnings forecast for 2026 to 2027 by 1% to 7%. The bank maintains a "Buy" rating on JD.com due to the potential for earnings recovery and attractive valuation