KaiYuan Securities: Alibaba Qianwen is expected to call the Feizhu or Taobao application interface through Agent, integrating the model with e-commerce "two-in-one."

KaiYuan Securities published a report stating that on January 11, Google announced that Gemini will integrate with Walmart (WMT.US) and Sam's Club, while Google officially released the Universal Commercial Protocol (UCP) to provide smart shopping capabilities for Google Search and Gemini's AI model; in addition, Alibaba (09988.HK) subsidiary Qianwen is also expected to achieve in-chat shopping.

The firm pointed out that the closed-loop value from AI Chatbot to actual payment is significant and may become a precursor to the reshaping of the next generation of e-commerce landscape. For Google, in addition to further enhancing the applicability and stickiness of Gemini, there are: (1) Google, through the UCP agreement, will directly convert search behavior into purchasing behavior, and the future e-commerce business model may shift from "selling traffic" to "commission-based" model; (2) Strengthening the moat of the "shopping graph," Google will grasp the true purchasing paths and repurchase frequencies of users, feeding back into the recommendation algorithm; (3) The advertising business under AI search inherently has the issue of "zero click-through rate," and the implementation of the payment process will directly improve this pain point.

KaiYuan Securities believes that the potential of domestic large models after unlocking payment permissions is even more promising: (1) The integration of models and the e-commerce market, as Alibaba and ByteDance are both large model manufacturers and e-commerce platforms; (2) Domestic companies are more proactive in the commercialization of AI functions.

The firm indicated that the Qianwen APP is expected to evolve from search selection to command delivery, optimistic about Alibaba's ecological advantages. The Qianwen APP is expected to complete selection, confirmation, and payment through Agent calls to Fliggy or Taobao APIs (Application Programming Interfaces) within the chat box, with the large model likely evolving from a chatbot to a personal agent form, reducing the cognitive burden on users. Considering that Alibaba has a complete ecosystem of e-commerce, travel, local life, logistics, and payment, Qianwen is expected to be the first to achieve a closed transaction loop. In the future, as the gap in AI models and algorithms continues to narrow, the ability to integrate scenarios and data may become a leading advantage. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of the deep integration of Qianwen and the Alibaba ecosystem