The signal of Moutai's pricing reform! Goldman Sachs: The liquor industry accelerates price clearing, expected to bottom out and rebound in the second half of the year

Moutai has recently accelerated the promotion of pricing, channel, and direct sales reforms, with a more defined market-oriented pricing system. Goldman Sachs believes this is a signal that the liquor industry has hit bottom, and Moutai's pricing actions will accelerate the normalization process of channel prices and profits, as well as channel discipline and inventory reduction. On January 1st, Moutai officially announced adjustments to the suggested retail prices of key products in the non-standard Moutai liquor series and simultaneously adjusted the factory prices based on channel research. The iMoutai platform officially launched the Feitian Moutai series on January 1st, including 53-degree 500ml (2019-2026 vintage), 100ml/1000ml Feitian, and various series products, with a suggested retail price of 1499 RMB per bottle. According to news from the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, the Goldman Sachs Leaf Liu team stated in a report released on January 14th that retail demand for high-end liquor remains weak year-on-year. Goldman Sachs' weekly tracking data and channel research show that despite a month-on-month improvement driven by the New Year's Day holiday in 2026 compared to November-December 2025, retail demand for high-end liquor remains weak year-on-year. This aligns with the general comments from companies at recent dealer conferences, indicating that current terminal sales are at 50%-70% of previous levels, and the industry still needs time to hit bottom. Goldman Sachs expects the liquor industry to see a bottoming opportunity in the second half of 2026, primarily due to the recovery of high-end banquet and business demand from a very low base in June 2025, but also anticipates that liquor companies will face increasing financial performance pressure in the first half of 2026 due to accelerated inventory reduction and potential price adjustments. iMoutai Platform Actions Continue to Expand Moutai's actions on the iMoutai platform continue to expand. The platform has officially launched the Feitian Moutai series and multiple product lines, including premium, zodiac, vintage, cultural series, and low-alcohol varieties. iMoutai continues to expand its demand coverage, adding 2.7 million users within nine days since the launch of Feitian on January 1st, with trading users reaching 400,000/100,000 in nine days/three days respectively. According to Goldman Sachs' estimates, if only considering the sales of Feitian Moutai (with a purchase limit of 12 bottles or 2 boxes per person for the first three days, and 6 bottles or 1 box before the Spring Festival), iMoutai may contribute approximately 4.5 billion RMB in total sales in the first nine days of 2026, which is about 35% of iMoutai's revenue (12.7 billion RMB) in the first nine months of 2025, and 3.4% of Moutai's total revenue (131 billion RMB) in the first nine months of 2025. According to "Daily Liquor Prices" information, Moutai has also adjusted the dealer contract prices of several mid-to-high-end products, including premium Moutai, Moutai 15 years (to be launched on iMoutai on January 13th), 43-degree Moutai, and Moutai 1935 among others. Wholesale Prices Show Divergent Trends From the perspective of wholesale price trends, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has decreased in the past two weeks, while the prices of Pu'er Moutai and Guojiao 1573 have remained relatively stable. The wholesale price of boxed Feitian Moutai has decreased by 40 RMB per bottle, from 1575 RMB to 1535 RMB; the wholesale price of bulk Feitian Moutai has decreased by 30 RMB, from 1560 RMB to 1530 RMB. For other Moutai products, the wholesale prices of zodiac liquor/color glaze treasures have increased by 45 RMB/150 RMB per bottle, while the prices of premium Moutai/Moutai 15 years/1-liter boxed Feitian Moutai have decreased by 20 RMB/120 RMB/70 RMB per bottle, respectively. The wholesale price of Pu'er Moutai remains at 850 RMB/810 RMB per bottle (according to "Daily Wine Price"/Bairong Wholesale Market data), and the wholesale price of Guojiao 1573 remains at 840 RMB per bottle. It is worth noting that the factory prices of premium Moutai and Moutai 15 years have been adjusted down from 2699 RMB/5399 RMB per bottle to 1859 RMB/3409 RMB. Demand Recovery Still Requires Time High-end liquor companies plan to increase investment in low-alcohol/low-tier markets to achieve growth and continue to implement a disciplined shipping strategy, enhancing channel support. Luzhou Laojiao and Zhenjiu Lidu Group Co., Ltd. both stated at a recent dealer conference that current terminal sales are about 50%-70% of previous levels. Goldman Sachs expects that the liquor industry will see a bottoming opportunity in the second half of 2026, primarily driven by the recovery of high-end banquets and business demand from a very low base in June 2025. However, at the same time, liquor companies will face greater financial pressure in the first half of 2026, mainly due to accelerated destocking and potential price adjustments. The process of price clearing in the industry will continue. Moutai, as the industry leader, will have its pricing reform actions set a demonstration effect for the entire liquor industry, promoting the normalization of channel pricing systems and profit levels, while also accelerating the industry's destocking process. Although this adjustment process may put pressure on companies' financial performance in the short term, it will be beneficial for the healthy development of the industry in the long term