Goldman Sachs: Oil prices have already factored in the disruption of Iranian supply, and expectations for increased supply from Venezuela are spreading

Goldman Sachs stated that the global crude oil market has "priced in the risks," incorporating the disruption of Iranian supply into expectations. On January 16, according to Wind Trading Platform, Goldman Sachs, in its latest research report, mentioned that Brent crude oil has risen nearly $6/barrel this year to over $66/barrel. Under its pricing framework, this increase corresponds to the market pricing in a sustained disruption of 700,000 barrels per day of Iranian-related supply over the next 12 months. The report also pointed out that data from the options market further confirms this risk premium: the probability of Brent crude oil reaching the $70 range at the expiration of the 3-month forward contract has surged from less than 7% two weeks ago to 15%, while the probability of exceeding $80/barrel remains low at 5%. Goldman Sachs also specifically noted another clue on the supply side: expectations for increased supply from Venezuela are developing. Meanwhile, the quality price difference between heavy crude oil and light crude oil has widened by about $2/barrel, consistent with its assumption of "an increase of 300,000 barrels per day in Venezuelan heavy oil production by year-end." Iranian Risk: Spot Prices Already Reflecting a Disruption of 700,000 Barrels per Day The report indicated that the global crude oil market is factoring in significant supply disruption risks related to Iran: Brent has risen to over $66/barrel, up nearly $6/barrel year-to-date, which, combined with its pricing framework, is interpreted as the market's pricing result for a sustained disruption of 700,000 barrels per day of Iranian-related supply over the next 12 months. Its framework also provides a reference: if production permanently declines by 1 million barrels per day, it typically leads to an increase in oil prices of $8/barrel (based on OECD inventory fair value) 12 months after the shock occurs (assuming OPEC does not fill the gap). Goldman Sachs pointed out that this corresponds to laying out the mapping relationship between "oil price risk premium" and "potential supply gap": the current increase corresponds not to an extreme supply cut, but to a disruption level that the market believes could persist. Options Market: Probability of $70 Range Adjusted Upward The pricing in the options market more clearly reflects these concerns. Data shows that the probability of Brent's April futures contract settling in the $70 range has jumped from less than 7% two weeks ago to 15%, although the probability of breaking $80/barrel remains moderate at 5%. At the same time, the report mentioned that call skew has risen to its highest level since the end of June 2025, when the U.S. targeted Iranian nuclear facilities. This indicates that the market is willing to pay more premium for upside protection, but the pricing for "runaway surges" remains relatively restrained—risks have been priced in, but not extreme. Venezuela Supply Increase Recognized by the Market Despite rising concerns about Iranian supply disruptions, Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for Iranian crude oil production to remain stable at 3.5 million barrels per day by 2026. In contrast to Iran, the market is pricing in an increase in Venezuelan crude oil supply The research report points out that the quality price spread between heavy crude oil and light crude oil has widened by about $2/barrel, which is consistent with Goldman Sachs' forecast that Venezuela's heavy crude oil production will increase by 300,000 barrels per day by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs expects Venezuela's crude oil production to rise from 830,000 barrels per day in December 2025 to 1.07 million barrels per day in December 2026. The above exciting content comes from the Wind Trading Platform. For more detailed interpretations, including real-time analysis and frontline research, please join the【 **Wind Trading Platform ▪ Annual Membership**】 ![](https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/3c4a713c-7a38-4582-9850-d0eabaf0e7ad.png) Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users' specific investment objectives, financial conditions, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at your own risk. ![](https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/61023b38-200c-4bb9-9180-d257ade84830.png)