What Apollo Global Management (APO)'s Big Bet on xAI Data Centers and Aircraft ABS Means for Shareholders

Apollo Global Management recently led a US$3.50 billion financing package for Valor Compute Infrastructure to fund xAI’s large-scale data-center and Nvidia GB200 GPU build-out, while also advancing its fourth aviation lease ABS via the MAPS 2026-1 Trust backed by 27 leased aircraft across 16 jurisdictions. Together, these moves underline Apollo’s push into capital-intensive, asset-backed exposure to both cutting-edge AI infrastructure and long-cycle aviation leasing. Next, we’ll examine how Apollo’s deepening role in financing xAI’s infrastructure could influence its existing investment narrative and risk profile. Rare earth metals are the new gold rush. Find out which 38 stocks are leading the charge.Apollo Global Management Investment Narrative RecapTo own Apollo, you generally need to believe in its ability to source and structure complex, asset-backed deals that support fee and spread earnings while managing execution and regulatory risks. The xAI data-center financing and the MAPS 2026-1 aviation ABS both fit this playbook, but they do not materially change the near term focus on disciplined growth and internal execution, nor do they remove the risk that conservative growth targets could constrain earnings if markets reward faster expansion. Among recent announcements, the ongoing share buybacks under Apollo’s US$3.0 billion repurchase program are most relevant here, as they sit alongside new capital-intensive financings like xAI and MAPS 2026-1. Together, they frame a near term catalyst around how effectively Apollo balances returning cash to shareholders with deploying capital into higher yielding, asset-backed opportunities without stretching its internal resources or risk controls. Yet for all the appeal of high profile AI and aviation deals, investors should also be aware that increased competition in key lending and insurance markets could... Read the full narrative on Apollo Global Management (it's free!)Apollo Global Management's narrative projects $1.1 billion revenue and $6.6 billion earnings by 2028. This implies revenues will decline by 64.6% per year, while earnings need to rise by about $3.5 billion from $3.1 billion today.Uncover how Apollo Global Management's forecasts yield a $158.22 fair value, a 10% upside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesAPO 1-Year Stock Price Chart Six fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$110 to US$214.84, underscoring how differently individual investors view Apollo’s worth. Set against this, the risk that internal execution challenges could blunt the benefits of complex deals like the xAI financing gives you a concrete issue to weigh as you compare those perspectives.Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Apollo Global Management - why the stock might be worth as much as 49% more than the current price!Build Your Own Apollo Global Management NarrativeDisagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.A great starting point for your Apollo Global Management research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.Our free Apollo Global Management research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Apollo Global Management's overall financial health at a glance.Ready For A Different Approach?Our top stock finds are flying under the radar-for now. Get in early:Explore 23 top quantum computing companies leading the revolution in next-gen technology and shaping the future with breakthroughs in quantum algorithms, superconducting qubits, and cutting-edge research.We've found 12 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.These 13 companies survived and thrived after COVID and have the right ingredients to survive Trump's tariffs. Discover why before your portfolio feels the trade war pinch. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.