<div id="readability-page-1"><div><ul> <li>If you are wondering whether HF Sinclair at around US$49.82 is still good value or starting to look expensive, you are not alone.</li> <li>The stock has had a mixed short term path, with a 1.5% decline over the last 7 days, a 4.6% return over 30 days, a 6.3% return year to date, and a 42.5% return over the past year, while the 3 year and 5 year returns sit at 2.9% and 103.3% respectively.</li> <li>Recent news coverage has focused on HF Sinclair's role as a US energy refiner and marketer, including corporate and capital allocation updates that investors have been watching closely. These developments help frame how the market is thinking about future cash flows, risk and potential resilience for the business.</li> <li>On our checks, HF Sinclair scores 4 out of 6 on valuation, as shown by its 4/6 value score. We will unpack this using several standard valuation approaches, then finish with a more comprehensive way to think about what the stock might be worth.</li> </ul> <p>HF Sinclair delivered 42.5% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Oil and Gas industry.</p> <h3>Approach 1: HF Sinclair Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis</h3> <p>A Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of a company’s future cash flows and then discounts them back to today’s dollars to arrive at an estimate of what the whole business might be worth right now.</p> <p>For HF Sinclair, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on free cash flow to shareholders. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $784.2 million. Analyst inputs extend out to 2027, then Simply Wall St extrapolates further, with projected free cash flow for 2035 of about $569.1 million, all in $ and all remaining below $1b per year in these projections.</p> <p>Pulling those projections together, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $69.68 per share. Compared with the current share price of around $49.82, this implies the stock trades at a 28.5% discount to that DCF estimate, which suggests HF Sinclair is undervalued on this specific cash flow model.</p> <p><strong>Result: UNDERVALUED</strong></p> <p>Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests HF Sinclair is undervalued by 28.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 868 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.</p> <figure><img height="476" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/16dd18a1-08e7-46c4-9565-47eea485b1f6/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="746" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/16dd18a1-08e7-46c4-9565-47eea485b1f6/chart/dcf"/><figcaption>DINO Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026</figcaption></figure> <p>Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for HF Sinclair.</p> <h3>Approach 2: HF Sinclair Price vs Earnings</h3> <p>For profitable companies like HF Sinclair, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of earnings. It connects the share price directly to current earnings power, which many investors treat as a key anchor for value.</p> <p>What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on how the market sees a company’s growth prospects and risk. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher risk usually lines up with a lower one.</p> <p>HF Sinclair currently trades on a P/E of about 23.44x. That sits above the Oil and Gas industry average of about 13.68x, but slightly below the peer group average of about 24.49x. Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” for HF Sinclair is 19.08x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be, given factors like earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and risks.</p> <p>The Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for HF Sinclair’s own profile rather than treating all companies as directly comparable. With the current 23.44x P/E trading above the 19.08x Fair Ratio, HF Sinclair appears somewhat expensive on this metric.</p> <p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p> <figure><img height="476" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/16dd18a1-08e7-46c4-9565-47eea485b1f6/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="746" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/16dd18a1-08e7-46c4-9565-47eea485b1f6/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/><figcaption>NYSE:DINO P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026</figcaption></figure> <p>P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1442 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.</p> <h3>Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your HF Sinclair Narrative</h3> <p>Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St let you connect your view of HF Sinclair’s story to a clear financial forecast and fair value by letting you set assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins, compare the fair value that falls out of those assumptions with today’s price to decide whether HF Sinclair looks attractive to you, and then see that view update automatically when new earnings or news arrive. For example, one investor might build a bullish HF Sinclair Narrative around strong fuel demand, renewable diesel expansion, efficiency gains and share buybacks that support their fair value near the higher US$61 analyst target, while another might focus on risks like slower renewable progress, high maintenance costs, regulatory pressure and regional exposure and land closer to the lower US$42 target, both using the same Community tools that millions of investors already use on the platform.</p> <p>Do you think there's more to the story for HF Sinclair? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!</p> <figure><img height="476" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/16dd18a1-08e7-46c4-9565-47eea485b1f6/chart/quote-price?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="746" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/16dd18a1-08e7-46c4-9565-47eea485b1f6/chart/quote-price"/><figcaption>NYSE:DINO 1-Year Stock Price Chart</figcaption></figure> <p><em> This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data     and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your     financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.     Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.     Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p></div></div>

DINO

<p>HF Sinclair (DINO) has seen a 42.5% return over the past year, but recent performance shows a 1.5% decline in the last week. A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests the stock is undervalued by 28.5%, with an intrinsic value of $69.68 per share compared to the current price of $49.82. However, the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.44x indicates it may be overvalued relative to its fair ratio of 19.08x. Investors are encouraged to consider these metrics when evaluating the stock's attractiveness.</p>

Is HF Sinclair (DINO) Still Attractive After Strong One Year Share Price Gain?